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April 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 19, 2021

7:40 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped down from 4185 to 4180, dropped to day’s low at 4150 and closed at 4163.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 is headed for the 4277 target, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (3) wave completed at 4191. The minute (4) wave should pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4135/4098. Once minute (4) completes, the minute (5) wave should target (5)=(1) at 4222/4259 to complete the minor 3 wave. There should then be a minor 4 of major [5] shallow pull-back to the 23% Fib at 4180 followed by minor 5 rally to the major [5]-P1 top at 4441, where minor 5=1 to 4535, where major [5]=0.78[1]. Ultimately, major [5] should reach the 4500 area in a late summer 2021 and can not exceed 4764 so as major [5]<[3], since major was [3]<[1].

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 is headed for the major [3]=1.23[1] target at 4246. Within the minor 5 wave, the minute (3) wave completed at 4191. The minute (4) wave should pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4114/4063. Once minute (4) completes, the minute (5) wave should target (5)=0.62(1) at 4225/4275 to complete the minor 5 wave. From there a major [4] pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3951/3759 to be followed by a major [5] wave to a P1 top in the spring of 2022, where [5]=[1] at 4800 to 4992.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

14 Responses to “April 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I’ve been following these Mike Santoli based “Mystery Broker” comments for awhile now. They are usually pretty good at the big pictures view on the US Indices. Seems the “Mystery Broker” has been following my alternate (blue) count and year 2009-2011 comparison.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1384112819386261510?s=21

  2. MS53 said

    Interesting that Mystery Broker has been talking to Dantoli for 10 years. Pugsma now in it’s 12th year.

  3. pugsma said

    Denali talked about two likely scenarios last week post-OPEX April:

    1) rally continuation with only a -1.5% pull-back (4128) – aligns with the primary count

    2) -3% drop (4065) post-OPEX – then a ramp to a top and a bigger pull-back -5 to -10% (3982 to 3771) – aligns with alternate (blue) count.

    • pugsma said

      I would say 75%+ of traders/investors are positioned for a rally continuation based on the bullish sentiment.

      • jrw said

        Are you saying that 75% of traders and investors are expecting the primary? If so, then the alternate count might be the more likely outlook?

        • pugsma said

          That’s just a rough guess based on weekly Sentiment being 3:1 bull:bears two weeks ago.

        • pugsma said

          Keep in mind the current primary count has been in place since last fall and has been nearly perfect in tracking this market from 2966 to 4191 thus far.

  4. pugsma said

    Keep this Cobra stat in mind this week:

    SPY Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high.

    67% chance to close above 4185
    82% chance to make a higher than 4192

  5. pugsma said

    I just updated NFLX Charts in the 2021 CCA Service.

  6. pugsma said

    A drop below 4126 would close the gap up from Thurs 4/15 to Frid 4/16.

  7. pugsma said

    The most popular big picture view right now is a -10% correction, like my Alt (blue) count.

    => CNBC keeps being on taking heads calling for a -10% correction.
    => Twitter is full of -10% correction (or more) predictions.

    The pain trade is likely higher with only small pull-backs like my primary count.

  8. kurt.ove.ler said

    Thanks!

    Anyway, both counts suggest new highs before any larger pullback?

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