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April 16th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 16, 2021

8:25 am EST: The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 is headed for the 4277 target, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. There should then be a minor 4 of major [5] shallow pull-back to the 23% Fib at 4180 followed by minor 5 rally to the major [5]-P1 top at 4441, where minor 5=1 to 4535, where major [5]=0.78[1]. Ultimately, major [5] should reach the 4500 area in a late summer 2021 and can not exceed 4764 so as major [5]<[3], since major was [3]<[1].

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is head for the major [3]=1.23[1] target at 4246. From there a major [4] pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3951/3759 to be followed by a major [5] wave to a P1 top in the spring of 2022, where [5]=[1] at 4800 to 4992.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “April 16th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    More extremes…


  2. pugsma said

    For the SP500 weekly chart both the RSI and MACD made new highs above their February highs wiping out all weekly chart negative divergences. Bullish…

    • lauter1 said

      And NYAD keeps taking out its high.

      • pugsma said

        IF the small caps (IWM) finish resting (they were 45% above their 200-day in February and now 31%), things could get real interesting.

    • pugsma said

      Also it should be noted that the alt(blue) major [3] = 1.23[1] target at 4246 is conservative.

      More typical major [3] targets are 1.38[1] at 4402 and 1.62[1] at 4652.

      • Jim Guthery said

        Would this interfere/overlap with primary counts

        • pugsma said

          No, the alt (blue) is an entirely deferent P1-C3 wave count that is much more bullish than the primary (white/green).

          The primary count is limited for major [5] to be less than major [3] at 4764, since major [3] is less than major [1]. Wave 3 can never be the shortest wave.

          The alternate (blue) count is unlimited for major [5], since major [3] is greater than major [1].

  3. hmeda said

    Cobra calling a drop as early as Monday because of a daily doji plus volume surge which usually means distribution.

  4. Jim Guthery said

    We will be able to separate the blue from primary on the next downturn?

    • pugsma said

      The Elliott Wave Theory Practitioner always has that challenge near the end of any degree (minute, minor, major, primary) 5-wave impulse.

      In general wave 4’s much more time based and less price based correction to a 23%/38% Fib retrace . A wave 2 pull-back is sharp and typically a deep 50%/62% Fib retrace.

  5. pugsma said

    Since Oct 2020. 6 months of post OPEX week weakness into the end of the month has led to a higher into the middle of the next month.

    Minute (4) down to 4086 pivot then minute (5) up to 4246 to 4277 by both wave counts. Both counts are in sync through mid-May. Then it gets interesting…


  6. hmeda said

    $VIX Weekly:

    $VIX Daily:

  7. pugsma said

    I just updated GBTC (BitCoin Proxy) in the 2021 CCA

  8. pugsma said

    Important TSLA Chart Update just added to the 2021 CCA Service.

  9. pugsma said

    For the SP-500 5-waves down from 4191 to 4157. So that’s likely wave a-(4) and now a b-(4) retrace to a 50% Fib at 4174. Then c-(4) down to c=a at 4140 (23% Fib 4135) or c=1.62a at 4119 (38% Fib 4098).

  10. pugsma said

    $SPX +16% above it’s 200-day leads to sideways to slightly down corrections.


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