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April 14th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 14, 2021

4:30 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4141, rose to an all-time high at 4152 and then drifted lower to 4121 (day’s low) and closed at 4125.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

22 Responses to “April 14th, 2021: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. Denali92 said

    Hi!

    I am afraid I still have no opex insights here. I just do not see a useful edge.
    -Per what I wrote last week, the SPX moves above the weekly and daily bollo bands are not bearish.

    -The SPX has been having these 3 plus % moves during the opex period every month since January 2020, except for last August… which was a rally continuation….
    -The SPX has also been having these early opex week highs, so yesterday could be the high for this opex period….. but again, this early opex week high tendency is something that is new and not normally the case.

    On a daily basis, the SPX shares a lot of similarities to last August with the run along / above the upper bollo. (which was then a rally continuation with no opex period turn)
    On a weekly basis, given the push above the upper weekly bollo, the market is stronger than last August.

    To me, there are really four equally likely opex scenarios – with none of them having an edge based on April opex tendencies and the market’s technical position:

    -RALLY continuation like last August

    -Minor opex top of 1.5% or so and then a consolidation till the Fed announcement on April 28th

    -Opex pullback and then a strong surge after an opex period bottom – possibly early next week – like in November and January

    -3% plus percent opex top with Wednesday likely being the high….. Given the drop in the VIX and the way this market is trading, this seems like a possible scenario, but not the most likely one….

    The one bigger picture historical point to be aware of is that in most years, there is a 5 plus % correction that lasts about a month some time during the April to July period.
    -There was none in 2017 or 2014…
    -The correction in 2020 just lasted a week

    Some of these April – July corrections have been a bit shorter (14 days and 7.2% in 1999) and some slightly longer (48 days, but just 4.3% in 2015). I will pull together a post on this next week.

    With these persistent market rallies, they can extend and extend…. though we know at some point they will end and the SPX should then trade down to at least the 20 week MA. The current rally is 167 days long.
    -The one from March to September 2020 lasted 163 days….
    -The two most recent post election ones lasted 277 days (which was extraordinary) post the 2016 election and the 187 day one that lasted from 16-Nov-2012 to 22-May 13th.

    The 2017 persistent rally is the only persistent rally that did not have an April or May top. (2010 was April 26th, 2012 was April 2nd, 2013 was May 22nd, 2019 was May 1st)

    Overall, the market continues to be resilient and super impressive.

    -D

  2. pugsma said

    Extremes:

    https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1382682751053234176?s=21

  3. MS53 said

    IWM daily since early February showing a potential H&S top. Head at 234, neckline at 207/208 and left shoulder higher than right shoulder. Target 234-208=26 ; 208-26=182, where wave C=1.62* wave A of [4].

  4. Donald Petersen said

    On the IWM Chart you show topping out at 338 should this be 238?

  5. pugsma said

    Here another’s view of my years 2009-2011 to 2020-2022 comparison:

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1382723391476658178?s=21

    • pugsma said

      My primary (white/green) wave count says the SP500 will defy the year 2010 scenario and just keep powering upward to 4500 to 4700 for P1-C3 with out a signification correction.

      All the excess Fed and Fiscal stimulus along with the full opening of the economy via vaccination makes this the base case.

  6. pugsma said

    Minute (3) trying for the 2.0(1) extension at 4192.

    • pugsma said

      Primary (white/green) count:

      (3)=2.00(1) is 4192
      (3)=2.23(1) is 4221
      (3)=2.38(2) is 4239
      (3)=2.62(1) is 4269

      Minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1 = 4277.

  7. pugsma said

    No index chart updates tonight. I’ll update things tomorrow morning after the open.

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