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March 31st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 31, 2021

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3958 to 3966, rallied to 3994 (new all-time high and days high) and faded into the close to end at 3973.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up from -9 to near -4.  Will need to see NYMO closes back above the zero, then multiple closes above +20 before the minor 3 of major [5] wave higher to be can be confirmed. Note this weak NYMO reading failing to clear the -20 to zero (crash zone signal) after a drop below -40 is warning sign.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -1.1% at 19.40. So far the VIX has failed to drop be 20 and remain there. A string of VIX closes below 20 would be indicative of a potential grinding minor 3 of of major [5] wave higher per the primary (white/green) count.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3985 and 3854 with a target of 4114.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line closed up slightly today but is only half-way back to its all-time high when the SP500 closed at 3976 on March 17th. This is a significant potential negative divergence and is warning sign that the alternate (blue) count could prevail. The A-D line has been in down-trend since March 17th. Will need to see the A-D make a new all-time high along with the SP-500 to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3854, which was a precise 50% Fibonacci retracement. The minor 3 wave up is just getting started with a target of 1.62*minor at 4277. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) should quickly target the 4114 area (bull flag target). This minute (1) wave up should produce a new NYSE A-D Line Cumulative all-time high plus an NYMO close above +20 and confirm the primary (white/green) count. The major [5]=0.78[1] target for the completion of P1 is at 4535. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3854 low.

The alternate (blue) count that major [3]-P1-C3 is completing a bearish ending diagonal here near the major [3]=[1] target of 4007. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative could be forming a several week long negative divergence supporting major [3] top here. Also, IWM and QQQ will likely fail to make new highs if this SP-500 alternate (blue) count plays out. The major [4] target area is the 23%/38% from 4007 at 3767/3611. Note: A break of the recent 3854 low will confirm the alternate (blue) count.

House Keeping: Q1-2021 (Jan-Mar) has ended. If you are quarterly subscriber to the premium service, then to receive the April 1st update tomorrow you will need to pay for Q2-2021 (Apr-June) service via the PUG SMA Shop: » Shop PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog (pugsma.com)

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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