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March 29th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 29, 2021

4:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3975 to 3969, dropped to 3943 (days low) and rallied to 3982 (days high) and closed at 3971.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -25 from -2.  Will need to see NYMO closes back above the zero, then multiple closes above +20 before the minor 3 of major [5] wave higher to be can be confirmed. Note this weak NYMO reading failing to clear the -20 to zero (crash zone signal) after a drop below -40 is warning sign.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +10.0% at 20.74.  So far the VIX has failed to drop be 20 and remain there. A string of VIX closes below 20 are indicative of a potential grinding minor 3 of of major [5] wave higher per the primary (white/green) count.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3985 and 3854 with a target of 4114.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line closed down again today is below half-way back to its all-time high when the SP500 closed at 3976 on March 17th. This is a significant potential negative divergence and is warning sign that the alternate (blue) count could prevail. The A-D line has been in down-trend since March 17th. Will need to see the A-D make a new all-time high along with the SP-500 to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3854, which was a precise 50% Fibonacci retracement. The minor 3 wave up is just getting started with a target of 1.62*minor at 4277. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) should quickly target the 4114 area (bull flag target). This minute (1) wave up should produce a new NYSE A-D Line Cumulative all-time high plus an NYMO close above +20 and confirm the primary (white/green) count. The major [5]=0.78[1] target for the completion of P1 is at 4535. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3854 low.

The alternate (blue) count that major [3]-P1-C3 is completing here near the major [3]=[1] target of 4007. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative could be forming a several week long negative divergence supporting major [3] top here. Also, IWM and QQQ will likely fail to make new highs if this SP-500 alternate (blue) count plays out. The major [4] target area is the 23%/38% from 4007 at 3767/3611. Note: A break of the recent 3854 low will confirm the alternate (blue) count.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

12 Responses to “March 29th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    There are many “red flags” here with the market internals that I have pointed out in the comments and post last Friday and continuing today.

    The rest of this week and into early next week we should get a resolution.

  2. MS53 said

    Thank you. Nobody gets it all like you do.

  3. pugsma said

    Some small improvement in the market internals today with an hour to the close.

    1) NYMO turned up but still below zero at -10.

    2) NYSE A-D Line Cumulative turned up but still only about half-way bank to a new all-time high.

    There is no need to update the SP-500 charts after today’s tight range.

  4. Vamsee Karanam said

    Zoom time? transports leading…

  5. hmeda said

    Smallies on the move again. Up 1.73% for the day. https://www.dropbox.com/s/7be03ch6iu3206c/20210330_134752.jpg?dl=0

    • pugsma said

      It will take a couple days of QQQ and IWM rallying together along with the SP500 to flip the NYMO above +20 and bust the NYSE A-D Line cumulative to a new all-time.

  6. pugsma said

    Early this morning NYMO intra-day ready is poking it’s head above water at +5. Needs to close above zero then multiple closes above +20 to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count minor 3 of major [5]-P1 wave head much higher.


  7. pugsma said

    One of my favorite 2021 CCA stocks charts, WBA, continues to perform well and is approaching my upside target set several months ago.

  8. Vamsee Karanam said

    Thats Steve for all the intraday info you provide. Very appreciated!

    My wild guess…. fill the gap, meet the IHS target and drop?

    This might align with SPX 4050-4100.

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