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March 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 26, 2021

6:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3910 to 3917, rose to 3944, dipped to 3917 (days low) and rallied to 3978 (days high) and closed at 3975.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at -1 from -31.  Will need to see NYMO closes back above the zero, then above +20 before the minor 3 of major [5] wave higher to be can be confirmed.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -4.8% at 18.86.  VIX closes below 20 are indicative of a potential grinding minor 3 of of major [5] wave higher.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3985 and 3854 with a target of 4114.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line turned back up yesterday and moved higher, but is still only above half-way back to its all-time high when the SP500 closed at 3976 on March 17th. This is a significant potential negative divergence and need to be cleared if the primary (white/green) wave count is to prevail. The A-D line has been in down-trend since March 17th. Will need to see the A-D make a new all-time high along with the SP-500 to confirm the major 3 of major [5] wave.

Seasonality: Aligns with a minor 2 of major [5] low here are the end of March and big rally for minor 3 of major [5] into the end of May, then a minor 4 pull-back in June and finally another rally for minor 5 of major [5] into August.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed today at 3854, which was a precise 50% Fibonacci retracement. The minor 3 wave up is just getting started with a target of 1.62*minor at 4277. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) should quickly target the 4114 area (bull flag target). This minute (1) wave up should produce a new NYSE A-D Line Cumulative all-time high plus an NYMO close above +20 and confirm the primary (white/green) count. The major [5]=0.78[1] target for the completion of P1 is at 4535. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3854 low.

The alternate (blue) count that major [3]-P1-C3 is completing here near the major [3]=[1] target of 4007. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative could be forming a several week long negative divergence supporting major [3] top here. Also, IWM and QQQ will likely fail to make new highs if this SP-500 alternate (blue) count plays out. The initial major [4] target is the 23% from 4007 at 3767. Note: A break of the recent 3854 low will confirm the alternate (blue) count.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP5000 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

4 Responses to “March 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    It should be noted that along with the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative that is severely lagging during this SP-500 attempt at a new all-time high, the NYMO at failing to clear the -20 to zero (crash zone) on a move back up from below -40 is very dangerous.

    The internals need to improve rapidly or the SP-500 is more likely to follow the alternate (blue) count path.

    • pugsma said

      The market internals say the alternate (blue) wave count should be the primary wave count. I’ll give the market a few more days to decide. But the SP500 drop could be swift IF internals don’t improve soon.

  2. pugsma said

    Here is a SP500 15-min chart morning update:

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP500-15-min-3-29-21-AM.jpg

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