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March 25th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 25, 2021

5:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3889 to 3879, dipped to 3854 (days low) and rallied to 3920 (days high) and closed at 3910.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -30 from -51.  Will need to see NYMO closes back above the zero, then above +20 before the minor 3 of major [5] wave higher to be can be confirmed.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -6.6% at 19.81.  VIX closes below 20 are indicative of a potential grinding minor 3 of of major [5] wave higher.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3985 and 3854 with a target of 4114.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line turned back up today. The A-D line has been in down-trend since March 15th. Will need to see the A-D make a new all-time high along with the SP-500 to confirm the major 3 of major [5] wave.

Seasonality: Aligns with a minor 2 of major [5] low here are the end of March and big rally for minor 3 of major [5] into the end of May, then a minor 4 pull-back in June and finally another rally for minor 5 of major [5] into August.

SP500 Seasonality

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed today at 3854, which was a precise 50% Fibonacci retracement. The minor 3 wave up is just getting started with a target of 1.62*minor at 4277. The major [5]=0.78[1] target for the completion of P1 is at 4535. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3854 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 is still on going from the major [3]-P1 top at 3950 in February. Major [4] is playing out as a running flat (minor A-B-C, 3-3-5 wave). The minor B wave completed at 3984 and now the minor C wave will drop to the C=A target of 3761 to complete major [4]. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid as labeled below 3955.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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