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March 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 24, 2021

6:40 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 3910 to 3919, rose to the days high of 3942 in the early morning and then drifted lower the rest of the day to close on the low at 3889.

Tonight I want to discuss the bigger picture shown on the SP-500 weekly chart. If you look back to the year 2009 to 2011 period, you can see the the P1-C1 wave did not peak for 2 years (May 2011) from the SC-IV low at 667 in March 2009. Thus, I don’t believe the P1-C3 wave is peaking now and likely won’t peak until sometime in 2022. What the SP500 and other US indices are is experiencing since early-February 2020 is most likely the major [4]-P1-C3 wave, much like the major [4]-P1-C1 in the spring of 2010. It’s possible that the 3723 low in early March ended major [4] (see primary (green)/alt (blue) counts), but it’s also possible major [4] could form a triangle or flat (see the new alt (red) count) and continue (mostly lower) for a few more weeks. Wave 4’s are notoriously hard to analyze and equally hard to trade.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

8 Responses to “March 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Blue counts for all 3 indices are coming together around end of month. Gonna be interesting to see how the NYMO figures into it all.

    • pugsma said

      Today the IWM completed a prefect flat wave minor C=A for major [4] today, so this market could turn on a dime at any moment. And VIX shows negative divergence at the close today; potentially good for the indices to move back up.

  2. pugsma said

    $CPCE rose up to 0.57 at the close today.

    That $CPE level led to the big February and March rallies of 256 and 261 points respectively.

    250 points up from 3889 is 4139


  3. pugsma said

    So far the post-election year seasonality looks spot on for the SP500.

    Seasonality said:
    => early March low: check 3723 major [4]
    => mid March peak: check 3984 minor 1 of major [5]
    => late March higher low: ??? 3853 minor 2 of major [5]
    => massive rally into August: ???


  4. pugsma said

    The 3915 to 3920 is the a big test area for calling the minor 2 low at 3854.


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