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March 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 22, 2021

5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3912 to 3915, rose most of the day to a high of at 3955 and closed at 3940.

Primary (white/green) count is that the minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3387, which was the 38% Fib. The minor 3 wave target is at 1.62*minor 1 = 4310. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3887 and is confirmed on a break above 3984.

The alternate (blue) count variation of the primary is that the minor 2 wave is still on going and will drop to the 50%/62% Fib of 3854 to 3822. Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid above the major [4]-P1 low at 3723 and becomes invalid above 3984.

For the alternate (red) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 3984 and the P2 wave will target the 38% Fib retrace of P1 at 3303. Note: alternate (red) count is confirmed on a break of the major [4]-P1 low at 3723 and becomes invalid on a move above 3984.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

21 Responses to “March 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I just posted my initial look at the NCLH chart and updated BA in the 2021 CCA Service.

  2. pugsma said

    The intra-day NYMO is in the tank below -40.

    Until we have a day when the SPY, QQQ, IWM and XLF all rally together signaling a minor 3 wave move up, the SP-500 remains vulnerable to the alternate (blue) count further drop for minor 2 down to 3854/3822.

    Watch the IWM, it just broke the 222.95 low from Friday.

  3. pugsma said

    SP500 5-min chart, just lines. Living on the edge. If that lower line breaks, the SP500 is likely to take a big fall.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-5-min-3-23-21-AM.jpg

  4. William Waggoner said

    $VIX still below 20. Not fearful yet.

  5. pugsma said

    Updated 15-min chart after the drop to 3927.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP-500-15-min-3-23-21-AM.jpg

  6. pugsma said

    I just updated the IBB and SLV daily charts in the 2021 CCA.

  7. Partagas said

    Hi Steve. Maybe it is me and I want to see a diamond in SPX in short-term chart from the 12th to today. The distance will take us to 4050s.

  8. pugsma said

    I just have say what’s going on with the NYMO in the tank near -50 and the VIX continuing to set new recovery lows below 19 at one point today is very unusual dispersive behavior by two of the most important market indicators.

    One of them is right and is telling of big move coming. The problem is which one to believe here.

    • Sagar Patel said

      Could rotation from small caps to Tech/QQQs cause this effect on NYMO…QQQs ready for a big up move?

      • pugsma said

        Healthy markets rise together across all risk assets.

        • bogiedoc said

          agree…but this highly split markert has been the case since the early february top. QQQ weak and RUT strong with the DJIA and then it flips every other day. SPY stuck in the middle. Many high flyer growth stocks have been weak even with this recent rally in Q’s.

          • pugsma said

            Yes and that see-saw behavior is going to stop very soon and all risk asset will rise or fall together. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that trade when it happens.

          • pugsma said

            The alternate (red) count is very much in play here abs it could happened extremely fast, like the flash crash in May 2010.

    • pugsma said

      Odds favor the NYMO being right (overall market breadth is more important than VIX) and a big drop in the SP500 to 3854 to 3822 is next per alt (blue).

      • pugsma said

        Big problem for the markets overall if the IWM breaks the recent 207.21 low (SP500 3723 equivalent point). IWM would then be a leading indicator of the SP500 P1-C3 top at 3984.

  9. pugsma said

    IWM just hit 217.51 which was it’s alt (blue) minor 2 target of 62% Fib.

    If the IWM doesn’t turn around soon the entire market is at an extreme risk of a melt-down event.

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