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March 10th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 10, 2021

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3874 to 3892, rose all to hit a high at 3917 and then faded slightly to close at 3899.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near +20.   Need to see NYMO close above +20 again for confirmation of the major [4] low at 3723 and a major [5] wave move above 3950.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -6.1% at 22.56.  Need to see the VIX close below 20 to see a grinding major [5] wave higher.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3950 and 3723 with a target of 4177.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: Today March 10th, the A-D line cumulative closed with a new all-time high along with the SP500 close at 3898 vs the previous A-D line all-time high with the SP500 close of 3936 on Feb 12th. This is positive divergence on The A-D line vs SP500 and means that with a high probability the SP500 close above the 3936 closing high of Feb 12th.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave in underway with target of 3177. The minor (1) wave completed at 3881 and minute (2) at 3819. The minute (3) wave target is where (3)=1.62(1) at 4075.  Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minute (2) low at 3819.

The alternate (blue) wave count is a variation of the primary wave count that has minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3917 and next is a minute (2) wave down to the 38%/50% area of 3843/3820.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

63 Responses to “March 10th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    NYMO closed at +19.89

  2. Bill Shepler said

    I’ve recently been working on developing some quantitative trading signals based on Dark Pool buying and options positioning. Today an interesting signal fired off from on of these systems. Over the last 3 years this signal occurred 76 prior instances besides today. For the prior 76 looking 9 trading days forward it showed 95% winners with an average return of 3.4%. Also during the forward 10 days from the signal date the average drawup was 4.9% and only 1 of the 76 did not show any drawup during the forward 10 days, and 67 of the 76 (88%) showed a drawup greater than 2% during the forward 10 days.

  3. pugsma said

    Expanding new 52-week highs on the $NYSE is very bullish. Happens early in a new bull cycle wave.


  4. pugsma said

    Anyone making any money? $$$

  5. pugsma said

    Intra-day NYMO at +40

  6. pugsma said

    Speaking of retirement. I wonder what the average age a PUG SMA subscriber is? From my limited interactions via email, I’m thinking above 50, maybe even above 60.

  7. Jerry Bogacz said

    When I’m 64!

  8. henry maddux said

    74. Been trading for 45 years and no one has been more helpful than PUG.

  9. Claudio Vanzan said

    I’m 62 been trading since 1978; Pug is very helpful

  10. David Harkness said


  11. Jim Guthery said


  12. pugsma said

    Someone here must be younger than me at 54.5?

  13. Klaas-Jan Doornbosch said


  14. Dinesh Murgai said


  15. Nicola Cerchier said


  16. quocvunguyen027 said

    I’m 29, been trading since late 2020, very newbie, Pug is my idol :))

    • MS53 said

      Excellent! You sure found the right guy at a young age.

    • pugsma said

      You are very similar to my kids ages 25 to 33. They took full control of their own accounts and are enjoying the investing and trading. They do tend to like to trade a little in the meme stocks GME and AMC. I’ve try to steer them clear.

  17. pugsma said

    New highs on the SP500 above 3950. 🙂

  18. Alonso Quixano said

    42, not new to investing, but new to more active trading. Really appreciate the content and community here. It’s been very helpful and educational since I subscribed almost 6 months ago. I’m definitely outperforming my old buy and hold approach.

  19. Tony Gabrione said

    I’m 39 and apparently the baby of the group 😂

    PUG has been helping achieve my goal of retirement by 45 and he’s doing an amazing job at it!

  20. Andrew Kirk said


  21. ssandysc said

    Steve, Time permitting if you could update the AMZN chart. Thanks

  22. Sherap Tsering said


  23. orion.colorado said


    Absolutely making money today. Nice work.

    Also, thanks for the TLT update! (Sorry for the later reply…emergency school science project has been consuming spare time past few days.)

  24. sk001 said

    Thanks Steve for all your updates. I have the confidence to trade with your counts. Waiting for TSLA to break out

    • sk001 said

      By the by I have a subscriber of Steve right from the beginning of this blog. Steve did help us all make a lot of money!

  25. pugsma said

    The NAAIM Exposure Index has dropped to 48. The lowest level of active month mangers invested in the markets since April 22nd 2020 a month after the Cycle 2 bottom at 2192.


  26. pugsma said

    Something new since the major [4] low at 3723. Much more of the market gains have been during market hours. More of a “buy the open” and “sell the close”.

  27. pugsma said

    More evidence that P1 is likely to keep running higher into years end.

    Using this stat, 6% higher than 3960 (March is not done) is 4197.


  28. Richard Drummond said

    I’m 54.7
    I remember when you started the blog and had arguments against the permabears always having a negative bias.
    IWM or Russel is performing like you had in the charts since last week. 😊
    Great forecast.

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