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March 5th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 5, 2021

2:00 pm EST: If you look at the SP-500 weekly chart below, then you will see that the years 2020-2021 wave action is following the years 2009-2021 script quite well. The percent gain at the major [3]-P1-C1 peak in April 2010 was +83% and the percent gain at the major [3]-P1-C3 peak of 3950 is +80%. The gain to the P1-C1 top in May 2011 was +106%. I’m expecting a gain of +107% to the P1-C3 top at 4535 in late year 2021 or early 2022.

One thing I will point out here is the drop from 3950 to 3723 for major [4]-P1-C3 was a prefect 23% Fib retrace (3724) of the major [2] to major [3] wave as re-labeled at 2966 to 3950, respectively. Moving major [1] up to 3233 and major [2] to 2966, aligns the years 2009-2010 and years 2020-2021 wave counts (as first seen in my January 10th, 2021 comparison chart below).

Finally on the daily chart you and see connecting the Oct 2028, C1 top and the Feb PB-C2 top produces a yellow line that has held 3 times since Jan 1st, 2021. First at the first day of year low of 3663, then at the end of January low at 3794 and now at 3723.

Have a great weekend !

Years 2009-2020 to 2020-2021 Comparison from January 10th, 2021:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

19 Responses to “March 5th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Yeah !! minor 2 on 4hr. needs to be 3950

  2. pugsma said

    Thursday key bottoms? Love’in ’em!

    • pugsma said

      The Elliott Wave Theory “Wave 4 of Previous Degree” is an oldie, but a goodie! 🙂

      • Mohammed Yahya said

        Hi Steve
        Are you saying that this 23% retrace may be the high probability low and now wave 5 will begin or 38% still needed like previous years ?

        • pugsma said

          The SP500 hit the exact 23% Fib retrace at 3723 and the QQQ an exact 38% at 297.45. These are the major [4] lows per the primary (white/green) count. The alternate (blue) count allows for slightly lower lows for major [4].

  3. pugsma said

    Have a great weekend ladies and gentlemen!

    It’s time to enjoy some drinks in the warm Chicago sun. 60F the next few days is a treat. 😉

    • Vamsee Karanam said

      Thanks Steve for all your work, hoping this is a great bottom for weeks/months. Cheers!

    • Jim Guthery said

      Thanks, Steve. Senate passed stimulus bill fits in nicely with your charting.

  4. Denali92 said

    Definitely lots of similarities!
    -Duration of the corrections 2010 (was Jan opex to Feb employment) and now it is Feb opex to March employment.

    ENJOY your weekend!


  5. Bill Shepler said

    This is interesting…


  6. pugsma said

    Remember to keep realistic expectations about the start to major [5]-P1.

    The bullish study triggered on March 1st on the BIG up day >2.3% to 3915, indicated that on average the SP500 would be down -2% at 3837 4 weeks (March 29th) later and would take on average 7 weeks (April 19th) to break above 3915. Thus patience is require to capture a average gain on +12% to 4385, 6 months later, with 100% probability.

    • pugsma said

      These are averages in the study and the SP500 could over or under perform them. But the final outcome is the reward.

  7. pugsma said

    This is a good time to remind everyone of the blog comment rules:


    Pay particular attention to rule #3, we don’t comment on “news, politics, etc”. That’s all just ground noise to the technical analysis work shown here.

  8. pugsma said

    FYI. The move up to 3878 broke above the pink bull flag upper boundary and confirmed a move to the 4177 target.

  9. pugsma said

    Important update to the XLE charts posted in the 2021 CCA.

  10. pugsma said

    Updated the TSLA Charts in the 2021 CCA.

  11. charles blood said

    Hi Steve,

    Maybe an update on TLT?

    Thanks, great analysis on the markets!

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