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March 4th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 4, 2021

3:40 pm EST: Quick pre-close update on the SP-500 charts showing revised primary (white/green) wave count call for a major [4]-P1-C3 low at 3723 to 3680. The wave 4 (minor 4) of previous degree target for major [4] is at 3694.

For the alternate (red) count, the SP-500 price action as been following it perfectly thus far. Not changes were necessary.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

26 Responses to “March 4th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Thank you, Steve !!

  2. pugsma said

    Added in the 15-min chart update.

  3. pugsma said

    So, we’ll have to wait until after 6pm EST to get the answer on whether or not the NYMO closed above -55.98.

    But there are three other potentially bull set-ups here:

    1) The VIX closed above its upper BB (28.57 vs 28.42). That’s a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger.

    2) The VIX closed below the close when the SP500 closed at 3811 last Friday. That’s a VIX -DIV vs SP500, which is bullish SP500 set-up.

    3) The SP500 closed below its lower BB (3768 vs 3796). That’s a SP500 Buy trigger.

  4. hmeda said

    $NYMO came in at -63. Got step 1 of the $VIX sell, $SPX buy trigger.

  5. pugsma said

    NYMO closed at -57.25 with SP500 at 3768.

    On Friday Feb 26, NYMO close at -55.98 with SP500 at 3811.

    Just missed a key +DIV on NYMO vs SP500.

  6. pugsma said

    Back on Jan 11th, I posted this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison.

    We have been missing the decent sized major [4] drop until now.


  7. pugsma said

    Corrections allow one to step back and look at the bigger wave structure.

    I have some interesting changes to make to the charts today.

  8. Denali92 said

    Today is the 12th calendar anniversary of that wonderful MARCH employment day intraday bottom! It has been quite the upwards journey since then….

    February opex has clearly brought the change in the character of the market that I have been watching for, but I must admit I did not expect that interest concerns would really be the catalyst for this sell off.
    • Previously, the only significant February Opex tops had occurred due to issues out of Asia.

    For the first time since the October bottom, the MID and the RUT, the clear market leaders, traded at their lower daily bollo bands. Both the MID and the RUT also got quite hourly oversold – both are potential bottom indicators….

    So the market – as always with a persistently bullish market – could bottom at any time. The correction from the 16-Feb-21 high has already lasted 17 days through yesterday. The longest correction since last March’s bottom was just 22 days (2-Sep-20 to 24-Sep-20).

    What I wanted to briefly highlight today (and which I will write more extensively on the weekend) is the following:
    • Prior to 2021, there have only been three significant opex tops in February when the market made a new high for the year during February.
    • These years were 2007, 2011 and 2020.
    • During all three of these years, the SPX:
    o Traded at new lows for the year in March
    o Bottomed during the March opex period
    o Made new highs later in the year (2007 and 2011 in April and August for 2020)
    • The one major difference is that in 2007 and 2011 there were significant corrections that started later in the year. (2007 – October and 2011 – May)

    For now, the bulls remain in control and the market could have bottomed yesterday or could bottom at any time, especially given yesterday’s trade below the lower daily bollo bands. Still, one scenario that could set the market up for a strong rally is the market continuing to have interest rate concerns until the March opex period and then have the FED address those concerns on FED Day which happens to be Opex Wednesday, March 17th. That could then set off a very strong opex induced rally.

    In 2007 and 2011, the March opex bottoms were on Opex Wednesday.

    Anyway, that is just one historical scenario to consider. I will be back after the weekend with more extensive historical information on these Feb Opex Tops => March opex bottoms.

    Have a good one!


  9. MS53 said

    Staying mindful of PUG comment that a wave 4 most often terminates above the previous wave 4 bottom which was 3694. Think thats right.

  10. pugsma said

    QQQ and IWM new lows today have set up a potential +DIV on RSI and MACD on their respective 15-min charts.

  11. Denali92 said

    The SPY has not had a run below the lower daily bollo since last March and before that, there was really just a two day run below it in Oct 2019 and a 5 day run in August 2019. Besides March 2020, one must go back to May 2019 for a proper run below the lower daily bollo and when that occurs there are lots of bounces when the SPY trades below the lower daily bollo.

    Even if we start a run along / below the lower daily bollo, there will be LOTS of long side trading opportunities when the market gets too short term oversold….

    The opposite with upper daily bollo runs does not happen. The market can stay bid and run along or above the upper daily bollo for much more extended periods like Summer 2020 with limited pullbacks.

    That is one of the many reasons why it is always easier to trade from the long side than the short side.

    Yesterday, the SPX was at one point over 70pts (over 1.8%) below its lower daily bollo – that is a real extreme.

    Since the bottom in 2009, there have been over 2900 trading days.
    • Just over 300 have seen the SPY trade below the lower daily bollo.
    • The worst extreme was 9.2% during the FLASH CRASH in 2010
    • There have only been 47 instances when the SPY traded more than 1.5% below the lower daily bollo intraday – ie. a bit less than 60pts right now.
    • The median and average move for the SPY trading below the lower daily bollo is .5%

    So even if there are strong sell offs like yesterday or today, unless there is SHOCKINGLY bad news that has caused the market to sell off…. Eventually the selling will dry up under the lower daily bollo and the market should rally in the short term.

    Today and yesterday are good examples of the power of the lower daily bollo to produce bounces. There are definitely instances where there are not bounces, but they are very rare and low probability. Except for Feb 27th & Feb 28th, all of the moves below the lower daily bollo in 2020 produced good bounces.

    Anyway, it is a good market dynamic to be aware of…..

    With two days of trading below the lower daily bollo, the market can bottom at any time. It traded for just 3 days below it in October, 1 day below it in September and then before that was last March.


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