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March 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 3, 2021

7:00 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3870, dropped to 3838, rose 3870 and closed on the low a 3819.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down at -31.   Need to see NYMO close above +20 again for confirmation of the minor 2 low.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +10.7% at 26.67.  Need to see the VIX close below 20 to have confirm the primary (green) count underway.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3950 and 3790 with a target of 4110.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed with a new all-time high along with the SP500 close at all-time high of 3936 on Feb 12th. There likely won’t be a significant top in the SP500 until the A-D line cumulative negatively diverges with respect to the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3790 (62% Fib) or may need to drop to the 78%/88% Fibs at 3750/3725. Basis minor 2 ending at 3790, the minor 3 target is at the minor 3=1.62*minor 1 of 4205. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3790; however minor 2 will remain valid above the major [4] low at 3694.

The alternate (blue) wave count is variation of the primary wave count that has the major [4]-P5-C3 wave sill underway as an ascending triangle. The 3694 low was minor A of major [4], 3950 was minor B, 3790 completed minor C and he minor D wave hit 3915. The minor E wave drop to 3819 should complete the major [4] triangle. The ascending triangle has a target of 4206 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. Note: The alternate (blue) count major [4] ascending triangle as labeled remains valid above the minor C low of 3790.

The alternate (red) is that P1-C3 topped at 3950. P2 wave should correct to at least to the 38% Fib retracement of the P1 wave up from 2192 to 3950, which is at 3282. The first major [A]-P2 wave should target the 3694 January low.  Note: It will take a break below 3790 and then the major [4] low at 3694 to fully confirm that P1 top at 3950 per the alternate (red) count.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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