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March 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 3, 2021

7:00 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3870, dropped to 3838, rose 3870 and closed on the low a 3819.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down at -31.   Need to see NYMO close above +20 again for confirmation of the minor 2 low.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +10.7% at 26.67.  Need to see the VIX close below 20 to have confirm the primary (green) count underway.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3950 and 3790 with a target of 4110.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed with a new all-time high along with the SP500 close at all-time high of 3936 on Feb 12th. There likely won’t be a significant top in the SP500 until the A-D line cumulative negatively diverges with respect to the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3790 (62% Fib) or may need to drop to the 78%/88% Fibs at 3750/3725. Basis minor 2 ending at 3790, the minor 3 target is at the minor 3=1.62*minor 1 of 4205. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3790; however minor 2 will remain valid above the major [4] low at 3694.

The alternate (blue) wave count is variation of the primary wave count that has the major [4]-P5-C3 wave sill underway as an ascending triangle. The 3694 low was minor A of major [4], 3950 was minor B, 3790 completed minor C and he minor D wave hit 3915. The minor E wave drop to 3819 should complete the major [4] triangle. The ascending triangle has a target of 4206 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. Note: The alternate (blue) count major [4] ascending triangle as labeled remains valid above the minor C low of 3790.

The alternate (red) is that P1-C3 topped at 3950. P2 wave should correct to at least to the 38% Fib retracement of the P1 wave up from 2192 to 3950, which is at 3282. The first major [A]-P2 wave should target the 3694 January low.  Note: It will take a break below 3790 and then the major [4] low at 3694 to fully confirm that P1 top at 3950 per the alternate (red) count.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “March 3rd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Don’t forget this study. Buying the expected weakness from that big up day (> +2.3% when above 200-day SMA) on Monday, translates in a 100% probability of average gain of +12% within 6 months.

    Pugsma said

    March 2, 2021 at 11:08 am e
    After yesterday’s Big Up Day of > 2.3% with the SP500 above the 200-day the markets tend to correct -1.9% over the next month but are up 12% over the next 6 months.

    https://twitter.com/optuma/status/1366776926447300610?s=21

  2. pugsma said

    I just posted a very interesting chart for IBB (BioTech ETF) in the 2021 CCA.

  3. pugsma said

    3790 low held thus far and continues to look like a consolidation triangle or bull flag in the SP500 since the 3950 high.

    • pugsma said

      Note 3830 is the top of the very tight down channel since the Monday 3915 high.

      It the SP500 just hit its head on this tight down channel and backed off. Needs to break above 3830 to break-out to the upside.

    • orion.colorado said

      This pivot seems pretty significant, does the caveat re: “lows rarely made on a Thurs or Fri” or is that just ancillary/anecdotal to all the recent price shenanigans?

      • pugsma said

        Monday and Tuesday’s are the highest probability days of the week for key lows.

        However Key Lows are made on every day of of the week. Recall the recent Key low at 3694 made on Friday, Jan 29th.

  4. Robert Swaim said

    This 3790 bounce was also off a trend line drawn from the 2191 low of a year ago to 3233 at the beginning of November.

  5. pugsma said

    Remember from the study the SP500 will be down an average of -2.0% from 3915, which 3837 at one month out (March 29th) from the March 1st signal at 3915.

    Then it will take on average 7 weeks (April 19th) before the SP500 will break above 3915.

    The SP-500 is completing a major [4]-P1-C3 wave here near the 23% Fib retrace of 3678 and will take some time to heal and recover in the major [5] wave that targets [5]=[1] at 4441 by August 2021.

    • pugsma said

      The major [4] primary (white/green) and alternate (red) point to the C=1.62A at 3680.

      This bounce from 3723 is a minute (4) wave and very like one more minute (5) wave down to 3680.

      • pugsma said

        Look for the 3680 low next Mon/Tues.

        • pugsma said

          Just follow the red minute degree wave labels to the major [4]-P1-C3 (white/green primary) low at 3680 or the major [W]-P2-C3 (alt red) low at 3680.

          For there the primary (white/green) goes to 4441 in a major [5]-P1-C1 wave.

          While the alternate (red) only bounces the 50% Fib at 3823 and then falls to 3282.

      • pugsma said

        However minute (1) low as 3790, so a break above 3790 would confirm 3723 and the major [4]-P1-C3 bottom, as minute (4) can not over lap minute (1).

  6. lauter1 said

    DJI perfect c=a from 32000 high into todays low, with a good bounce for now.

  7. pugsma said

    It’s going to be close, but there is the possibility of NYMO +DIV wrt SP500, IF the NYMO can close above -55.98 with SP500 below 3811.

  8. pugsma said

    Here is the big picture SP500 daily chart of what I’m discussing above:

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/PUG-SP500-daily-3-4-21-pre-close.jpg

  9. orion.colorado said

    You rock, Steve. Thanks for staying the course.

  10. pugsma said

    Pre-close blog post with SP-500 charts down to the 60-min level added.

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