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March 1st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 1, 2021

7:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3811 to 3843, rose all to hit a high at 3915 and then faded slightly to close at 3902.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at -21.   Need to see NYMO close above +20 again for confirmation of the minor 2 low.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -16.5% at 23.35.  Need to see the VIX close below 20 to have confirm the primary (green) count underway.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3950 and 3790 with a target of 4110.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed with a new all-time high along with the SP500 close at all-time high of 3936 on Feb 12th. There likely won’t be a significant top in the SP500 until the A-D line cumulative negatively diverges with respect to the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3790 (62% Fib). Basis minor 2 ending at 3790, the minor 3 target is at the minor 3=1.62*minor 1 of 4205. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3790.

The alternate (blue) wave count is variation of the primary wave count that has the major [4]-P5-C3 wave sill underway as an ascending triangle. The 3694 low was minor A of major [4], 3950 was minor B, and 3790 could have completed minor C. The minor D wave should test 3930 again and minor E drop to the 3871/3827 pivot area to complete the major [4] triangle. The ascending triangle has a target of 4206 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. Note: The alternate (blue) count major [4] ascending triangle as labeled remains valid above the minor C low of 3790.

The alternate (red) is that P1-C3 topped at 3950. P2 wave should correct to at least to the 38% Fib retracement of the P1 wave up from 2192 to 3950, which is at 3282. The first major [A]-P2 wave should target the 3694 January low.  Note: It will take a break below 3790 and then the major [4] low at 3694 to fully confirm that P1 top at 3950.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

27 Responses to “March 1st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    There were a clear 5 waves up from 3790 to 3915. That could have ended minute (1) of minor 5.

    This slight weakness to 3887 so far could be minute (2).

  2. pugsma said

    Although I have to say that this consolidation since the late January high at 3871 screams major [4] wave ascending triangle. Every attempt to break through 3930 has been met with selling. And every Selling drop has held the late January low at 3694.

    An SP500 major [4] triangle also aligns with the QQQ flat wave major [4] count.

    • pugsma said

      If it is the ascending triangle major [4] the SP500 could get stuck in the 3790 to 3930 range for another week or even two. Building up more potential energy for the break out.

  3. MS53 said

    What are the EW rules regarding wave structure in a triangle? Always thot they were 3 waves only. Are there allowances for exceptions like 3789 to 3915 ?

  4. pugsma said

    After yesterday’s Big Up Day of > 2.3% with the SP500 above the 200-day the markets tend to correct -1.9% over the next month but are up 12% over the next 6 months.

    https://twitter.com/optuma/status/1366776926447300610?s=21

    • pugsma said

      Again scream triangle here. Sturdy says Not much gains and maybe some small losses next few weeks.

      • pugsma said

        The study data actually shows a lower low than 3790 is still possible over the next few weeks, but then a 100% probability of a 12% averaged gain in 6 months puts the SP500 at 4368 by August.

    • pugsma said

      This study is real eye opener about expecting the short-term (few weeks) of SP500 weakness after the big gain signal what happen yesterday. But the 6 month performance says the 4200+ targets be hit for P1-C3.

      • pugsma said

        Combine this study with the Cobra’s VIX stat calling for a 93% (38 of 41) probability that a new low below 3790 is highly likely.

        • Laura A. Young said

          Thanks for these updates … I’m curious to learn how /when you might modify your recent truckload of buys — follow the primary green with stop losses in place if red materializes? or scale out sooner? looking to refill truck at lower level ? thanks for sharing your practical application of the counts

  5. pugsma said

    For those playing the alt (red) count the NYMO did drop below -40 Friday and then failed to break through the -20 to zero “crash zone “. That’s a market crash set-up on the NYMO. No guarantee, but the NYMO crash set up is in place until the NYMO can close above +20.

  6. Robert Swaim said

    For those interested, BABA s.t. RSI & MACD starting to turn up with the pullback now near 61.8% of the rise off the bottom.

    Meanwhile TDAmeritrade site is not responding but phone app is.

  7. pugsma said

    Pattern Continues to play as it doesn’t pay to hold ST bull trades above 3900 or ST bearish trades near 3800.

    Is it a bullish consolidation triangle like alt(blue)?

    Or is it distribution at a Primary degree top like alt (red)?

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