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February 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 26, 2021

2:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3829 to 3839, quickly hit 3853, dropped to 3790, rose to 3961 and then started to slide back down 3820 into afternoon trading with an hour an half to the close.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3790 (62% Fib) or could test lower to the 78% Fib at 3750 . Basis minor 2 ending at 3790, the minor 3 target is at the minor 3=1.62*minor 1 of 4205. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3694 low for major [4].

The new alternate (blue) wave count is variation of the primary wave count that has the major [4]-P5-C3 wave sill underway as an ascending triangle. The 3694 low was minor A of major [4], 3950 was minor B, and 3790 could have completed minor C or it could still drop lower. The minor D wave should test 3930 again and minor E drop to the 3871/3827 pivot area to complete the major [4] triangle. The ascending triangle has a target of 4206 to complete major [5]-P1-C3. Note: The alternate (blue) count major [4] ascending triangle as labeled remains valid above the minor A low of 3694.

The alternate (red) is that P1-C3 topped at 3950. P2 wave should correct to at least to the 38% Fib retracement of the P1 wave up from 2192 to 3950, which is at 3282. The first major [A]-P2 wave should target the 3694 January low.  Note: It will take a break below the major [4] low at 3694 to fully confirm that P1 top at 3950. However, the break of 3805 is warning sign that this alternate (red) count is gaining probability.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 Seasonality:

SP500 Seasonality

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

48 Responses to “February 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. orion.colorado said

    Thanks for the pre-close update/post. If possible, could you please post an update to the TLT chart soon?

  2. pugsma said

    I hope everyone sees the MACD and RSI positive divergence on the 60-min charts of SPX, IWM and QQQ.

    • orion.colorado said

      Looks like VIX has supportive divergence as well, right?

      • pugsma said

        Yes the VIX did fall with the lower SPX close on Friday vs Thursday.

        However the 60-min chart MACD and RSI +DIV is potentially more bullish be caused it occurred across the longer time frame of Tuesday to Friday.

  3. Aaron Goldberg said

    Interesting Gann time cycle working here which corresponds with the May 2011 to October 2011 decline. From the Feb 16 high of 3950 the market took just over seven days to fall to 3805 from there it rose approximately 85% to 3929 in 12.5 actual trading hours, then fell breaking 3805. Back in 2011 the market fell just over seven weeks and rose 85% in 12.7 days then fell. If and that is a big if the market is in the same time fractal this decline will end March 24. This matches up to Steve’s red count and a weak March as he has been reporting.

  4. pugsma said

    Just an FYI. Cobra gave a stat on the close of Friday that since the VIX closed up > 30% on two consecutive days (Thurs/Fri), then there is 93% Probability of a lower low than 3790 coming next before a higher than 3950.

    • pugsma said

      38 of 41 (93%) cases since year 2009.

    • pugsma said

      But today had a 68% chance of being up with a gain faction of 1.5.

    • pugsma said

      I wound guess Cobra wound say his 93% stat failed if the VIX can drop below the pre-Thurs low at 21.34.

      • pugsma said

        Sure looking like an epic Cobra stat failure at the moment with everything up 2 to 3%.

        The 7%, 3 cases where it did fail led to 10 to 16 trading daily rally, 2 of 3 to new highs.

        • Trevor L said

          Hi Pug,

          Using the idea, of “what would catch most people offside”, any thoughts on major 4 being an irregular flat, with a C leg that satisfies Cobra? Thanks.

          • pugsma said

            Unlikely. A move straight up from here is actually more distributive and going to burn a lot of money that left equities last week.

            Note that the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) key stocks like AAPL and AMZN just tested their respective 200-day SMA’s.

          • pugsma said

            And so begins the regret and chase of the scares bulls.

        • Denali92 said

          Bearish stats just do not work that well these days… It is the reality of these persistent markets. I definitely will continue to look at all bearish stats with a degree of scepticism until they start consistently working.

          The historical stats did work well for the last day of February (lower) and the first day of March higher with lots of gap and go’s like today. Not a lot of stats for the rest of March that are all that solid, though March opex does have its moments, especially with the FOMC during March opex week like it is this year (17-Mar)

          Just from a comparative standpoint, SPX is still quite similar to January – February of this year and still has a bit of similarity (in terms of market direction, but not percentage change) to Jan-Feb-March 2020. In 2020, the SPX was down big, but then recovered on the last day of February and then gapped up and went on the first day of March.

          Need to start watching this last day of the month weakness and first day of the month strength as it starting to occur more regularly. (Happened in October-Nov, Nov-Dec, Jan-Feb and now Feb-Mar)

          -D

  5. Robert Swaim said

    You asked last week for feedback on trading sites. Once again, I was not able to log into the TDAmeritrade website on a number of tries, and when in it only responded to some clicks.
    However, the mobile phone app never has an issue and responds right away as always.

  6. pugsma said

    Crazy potential bullish stat on up volume here:

    https://twitter.com/mikemckerr_tda/status/1366409449284468738?s=21

  7. pugsma said

    FYI I updated AAPL, AMZN and TSLA in the 2021 today before market open.

  8. pugsma said

    This rally from 3790 is starting to look like something extra-ordinary.

    Hopefully everyone loaded the (cyber) truck like PUG indicated on Friday. 😎

    • pugsma said

      This 😎

      Pugsma said

      February 26, 2021 at 10:50 am e
      I added to the truck again on the dip to 3789. Now close to 2/3 in for my ST trade up to 4206 triangle target.

    • kazoom1618 said

      I was skiing all day Friday – they finally opened the hill!
      But I left a ‘PUGSMA’ order on SPY at $378.27 – $0.04 above the LOD!!
      A great day all around!

    • orion.colorado said

      Heck yeah…while I missed the actual intraday ping as I had a trigger of 3784, got a good chunk premarket and then round some off at close by closing protective sold calls and added SPXL AH on Fri. Accounts are looking good today, thanks again for the timely updates.

  9. Jim Guthery said

    I did, but I sold into the ramp. Everything I sold is off the highs. I still see weakness in a lot of stocks, especially SPACS and Growth.

    • pugsma said

      You must be buying the wrong things. Everything I have just make a new daily high in the last few minutes.

      The play-book has changed in 2021. SPAC’s and Growth stocks are are so 2020

    • Jim Guthery said

      I think I will wait until we close above 3950 for a guaranteed signal. I will lose a little to the upside here for the peace of mind. I have 2/3rds in cash.

  10. Jim Guthery said

    Yeah, I may need to re-evaluate my approach.

  11. henry maddux said

    thank you Lord and PUG too.
    My managed accts. today:S&P +2.68%
    +$92,178.17
    +4.52%
    +$92,650.74
    +3.20%
    +$22,094.17
    +3.61%

  12. pugsma said

    Those playing the alt blue triangle might get one more small dip to add.

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