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February 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 24, 2021

6:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3881 to 3873, quickly hit the days low of 3860, then rallied all today to close near the high (3930) at 3925.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway from the minor 2 low at 3805. The minor 2 target is at the minor 3=1.62*minor 1 at 4220. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457 to complete P1-C3.

The new alternate (blue) wave count is subtle variation of the primary wave count that has the major [4]-P5-C3 wave sill underway as an ascending triangle. The 3694 low was minor A of major [4], 3950 was minor B, and 3805 was minor C. Now minor D is targeting the 3950 high. There will then be small minor E pull-back to the 50% Fib at 3878 before the major [5]-P1 wave kicks off towards the triangle target of 4206.

Note: For both wave counts, breaking the 3694 low would confirm the P1-C1 top can be called.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

26 Responses to “February 24th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Keeping this in mind from Denali:

    -One slight note of caution for the last few days of this week is that the end of February does tend to have some weakness, especially the last trading day of February. While the first trading day of March is generally a strong up day.

  2. BeezNeez said

    Is this the wave 4 playing out? Is there another target other than the one in the chart?

  3. pugsma said

    NYMO intra-day breaking down to a new relative low.

    Opening the Potential for more selling IF the NYMO closes at a new low.

  4. pugsma said

    Really like the ascending triangle count.

    • Partagas said

      Me too. Thanks Steve. More problems with trading platforms I hear. I didn’t have any so far. Knock on wood.

  5. Jim Guthery said

    any advice on the pivot? Are we looking at 3871?

  6. pugsma said

    Still no fear. 23% bears vs 45% bulls is not ideal

    https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results?

  7. pugsma said

    The drop below 3868 means that for the primary (white/green) wave minute (1) ended at 3930 and this in minute (2) that must hold the minor 2 low at 3805. Fib retracement 50% = 3867, 62% = 3852 and 78% = 3833.

  8. Robert Swaim said

    Climbing without fear indeed!!!
    https://photos.smugmug.com/Misc-and-funny/i-CKkj8jK/0/a5fc2343/X3/SPX%20week%20210225-X3.png

  9. pugsma said

    A lower low below 3805 or the minor 2 wave is now in play.

    Alternate (red) has minor 2 at (c)=(a) of 3785.

    • pugsma said

      Gap Fill at 3780 to 3791.

    • pugsma said

      The big problem with that scenario is a break of the 3805 low also breaks the 50-day SMA and the big rising wedge bottom channel off the C2 2192 low.

      That P1-C3 top at 3950 would look more likely on a break of 3805.

    • Anjali Tewari said

      Hi – did this come into play as we broke the 61.8 retracement ?

      What would tell us that bearish red is playing out vs the blue triangle alt count … is it a break below 3825 ?

      • pugsma said

        3805 is critical for the ascending triangle wave count. Below 3805 the ascending triangle is broken.

        3805 is not the end of the primary (white/green) as the minor 2 of major [5] wave can drop all the wave to major [4] low at 3694.

        But if 3805 lost, the alternate (red) count for the P1-C3 top at 3950 has to be give a much higher probability.

  10. pugsma said

    3825, just hit the rising trendline.

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