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February 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 19, 2021

7:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3914 to 3921, hit the days high at 3330 and into the close to close at 3907.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at -11.  The NYMO is resetting after been six consecutive closes above the key +20 level (indicating tremendous underlying market breadth). Need to see NYMO close above +20 again for confirmation of the minor 2 low.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -1.96% at 22.05.  The VIX closed below 20 on Friday, Feb 12th indicating the SP500 melt-up (primary green count) is likely underway.
  3. Chart PatternSmall Bull Flag on the 15-min chart between 3950 and 3885 with a target of 4015 on break above 3950. There is a competing head and shoulders top with head at 3950, neckline at 3885 and target of 3820 on a break of 3885.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed with a new all-time high along with the SP500 close at all-time high of 3936 on Feb 12th. There likely won’t be a significant top in the SP500 until the A-D line cumulative negatively diverges with respect to the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 completed at 3950. The minor 2 wave lower is underway and may have ended at 3885 or will drop to the 38/50%% Fib at 3853/3822 (alternate blue minor 2 label). Once minor 2 completes, minor 3 will head towards 4300. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457. Note: The primary (white/green) count for the minor 2 remains valid above the major [4] low at 3694.

The alternate (red) wave count is that major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3950, just below the major [5]=[1] target of 3972. The 38% Fib retrace target for P2 is at 3282. Note: the alternate (red) count as labeled remains valid below the 3950 high.

Have a great weekend !

DJIA-30 Seasonality Post-US Election Years: [Aligns with the primary (white/green) count)]

SP500 Seasonality

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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