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February 1st, 2021: SP-500, IMW, QQQ Chart Updates

Posted by pugsma on February 1, 2021

5:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up form 3714 to 3730, quickly high 3755, backed off to 3726 and then rallied all day to hit a high of 3784 before closing at 3774.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -25. The NYMO closed back below its lower BB on Friday, Jan 29th with a +DIV and thus re-set the NYMO based SP500 Buy Trigger. The NYMO closed back above its lower BB on Monday, Feb 1st confirming the SP500 Buy Signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -8.61% at 30.24. The VIX closed back above its upper BB on Friday, Jan 29th and thus re-set the VIX based SP500 Buy Trigger. The VIX closed back below its lower BB on Monday, Feb 1st confirming the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.
  3. Chart Pattern: Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders Top with Head at 3871, average neckline at 3679 and target of 3487. Note: The SP500 will need to break below 3794 and 3679 to confirm.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative continues to close lower with lower SP-500 closes. Nothing unusual. Need to see the A-D line cumulative turn-back up with a lower SP500 close to setup a positive divergence.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minute (5) minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3871, as an ending diagonal. The minor 4 wave played out as a simple zig-zag: minute (a) of minor 4 was the drop from 3871 to 3632, minute (b) of minor 4 was the rise from 3632 to 3831 and the minute (c) wave completed at 3794, near minute (c)=(a) target of 3692. The minor 5 of major [5] wave up should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count for the minor 5 wave up as labeled remains valid above the minor 4 low at 3694.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3871, as an ending diagonal. The major [4] down is underway and should target the 23%/38% Fibs at 3617/3451. Major [4] looks to be forming a double zig-zag, minor W-X-Y. The minor W of major [4] wave completed at 3694. The minor X wave up hit 3784 so far, and will typically retrace to the 50%/62% Fib at 3793 to 3804. From the minor X wave high, the minor Y wave should drop below 3732 toward the final major [4] target of Y=W at 3605 to Y=1.62W at 3559. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4214/4380. Note: the alternate (blue) count is valid for minor X below the 3871 high.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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