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January 29th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 29, 2021

4:55 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3787 to 3787, dropped to 3742, rallied to 3777 (days high), dropped 3694, rallied to 3742 and closed at 3714.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO down at -60 (the Wed 1/27 close was -64, so a two day +DIV on NYMO wrt the lower SP500 close). The NYMO closed back below its lower BB and thus has re-set the NYMO based SP500 Buy Trigger. The NYMO must close back above the lower BB to confirm.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +9.53% at 33.09. The VIX closed back above its upper BB and thus has re-set the VIX based SP500 Buy Trigger. The VIX must close back below its lower BB to confirm. Also the VIX closed lower with a lower SP500 close. This is negative VIX divergence and is potentially positive for the SP500.
  3. Chart Pattern: Head and Shoulders Top with Head at 3871, neckline at 3750 and target of 3629.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative continues to close lower with lower SP-500 closes. Nothing unusual. Need to see the A-D line cumulative turn-back up with a lower SP500 close to setup a positive divergence.

Seasonality:

  1. After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February and choppy for March.

Years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 Comparison:

So far this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 comparison it playing out perfectly with the recent top of major [3]-P1 at 3871 vs the 3845 prediction made on Jan 9th, 2021. Now a correction for major [4]-P1 down to 3507 is predicted per the year 2009-2010 comparison followed by a major [5]-P1 rally to 4142.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minute (5) minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3871, as an ending diagonal. The minor 4 wave is played out as a simple zig-zag: minute (a) of minor 4 was the drop from 3871 to 3632, minute (b) of minor 4 was the rise from 3632 to 3831 and the minute (c) wave completed at 3794, near minute (c)=(a) target of 3692. The minor 5 of major [5] wave up should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count for the minor 5 wave up as labeled remains valid above the minor 4 low at 3694. Should minor 4 head lower that 3694, the limit of minor is the minor 1 high of 3550.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3871, as an ending diagonal. The major [4] down is underway and should target the 23%/38% Fibs at 3617/3451. The minor A of major [4] wave completed at 3732. The minor B wave up hit 3831, between the 62% Fib of 3818 and the 78% Fib at 3840. From there the minor C wave should drop below 3732 toward the final major [4] target of C=A at 3606. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4214/4380. Note: the alternate (blue) count is valid below the 3871 high.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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