January 28th, 2021: SP-500 Technical Analysis
Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2021
5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3751 to 3755, rallied to the days high 3831, fell to 3785 (days low) and closed at 3787.
Market Technical Notes:
- NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -40. The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas. This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for a larger SP500 drop (we saw that today). Now the NYMO closed (-64) well below its lower BB (-44) on Wed Jan 27th setting up a SP500 Buy Trigger. The NYMO must close back above the lower BB to confirm.
- VIX: The VIX closed down -18.81% at 30.21. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher since early December as the SP500 has slowly climbed higher, which is bearish positive divergence on the VIX vs SP500 price (remember the VIX vs SP500 behavior is inverted). Now the VIX has closed well above its upper BB (30.60) on Wed, Jan 27th setting up a SP500 Buy Trigger. The VIX closed back below the upper BB on Thurs Jan 28th to confirm.
- Chart Pattern:
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Wed, Jan 20th with the SP500 closing at 3852 all-time high. However on Thurs, Jan 21st the SP500 closed at a higher all-time closing high of 3853, with the A-D line cumulative closing much lower set-up up a required negative divergence for a market top. Since last Thurs, Jan 21st, the A-D Cumulative has continued to fall lower.
Seasonality:
- After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February and March.
Years 2009-2010 to Years 2020-2021 Comparison:
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3827. The minor 4 wave has played out as an expanded flat wave: minute (a) of minor 4 was the drop from 3827 to 3570, minute (b) of minor 4 was the rise from 3570 to 3871 and the minute (c) wave completed at 3732, near the 23% Fib of 3725. The minor 5 of major [5] wave up should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count for the minor 5 wave up as labeled remains valid above the minor 4 low at 3732.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3871 as an ending diagonal. The major [4] down is underway and should target the 23%/38% Fibs at 3617/3451. The minor A of major [4] wave completed at 3732. The minor B wave up hit 3831, between the 62% Fib of 3818 and the 78% Fib at 3840. From there the minor C wave should drop below 3732 toward the final major [4] target of C=A at 3606. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4214/4380. Note: the alternate (blue) count is valid below the 3871 high.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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