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January 27th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 27, 2021

6:05 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3850 to 3837, quickly hit 3762, rallied to 3811, dropped to the days low at 3732 and closed at 3751.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -64.  The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas.  This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for a larger SP500 drop (we saw that today). Now the NYMO closed (-64) well below its lower BB (-44) setting up a SP500 Buy Trigger. The NYMO must close back above the lower BB to confirm.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up 61.64% at 37.21. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher since early December as the SP500 has slowly climbed higher, which is bearish positive divergence on the VIX vs SP500 price (remember the VIX vs SP500 behavior is inverted). Now the VIX has closed well above its upper BB (30.60) setting up a SP500 Buy Trigger. The VIX must close back below the upper BB to confirm.
  3. Chart Pattern
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Wed, Jan 20th with the SP500 closing at 3852 all-time high. However on Thurs, Jan 21st the SP500 closed at a higher all-time closing high of 3853, with the A-D line cumulative closing much lower set-up up a required negative divergence for a market top. Since last Thurs, Jan 21st, the A-D Cumulative has continued to fall lower.

Seasonality:

  1. After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February and March.

Years 2009-2010 to Years 2020-2021 Comparison:

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3827. The minor 4 has been playing out as an expanded flat wave. Minute (a) of minor 4 was the drop from 3827 to 3570. Minute (b) of minor 4 was the rise from 3570 to 3871. Now the minute (c) wave is targeting the 23% Fig at 3725, and may have completed today at 3732. Once minor 4 completed, the minor 5 of major [5] wave should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count for the minor 4 wave as labeled remains valid above the minor 1 of major [5] high at 3550.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is completed at 3871 as an ending diagonal. The major [4] down is underway and should target the 23%/38% Fibs at 3617/3451. The minor A of major [4] wave might have completed today at 3732 and minor B wave up to a 50% Fib at 3802 could be next. From there the minor C wave should drop below 3732 toward the final major [4] target of C=A at 3663. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4214/4380.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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