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January 26th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 26, 2021

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3855 to 3863, quickly hit the days (and all-time) high at 3871, then traded sideways and closed down at 3850.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -30.  The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas.  This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for a larger SP500 drop.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -0.73% at 23.02. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher since early December as the SP500 has slowly climbed higher, which is bearish positive divergence on the VIX vs SP500 price (remember the VIX vs SP500 behavior is inverted).
  3. Chart Pattern:  Bull Flag between 3827 and 3750 with an ideal measured move target at 3904 (so far hit 3871).
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Wed, Jan 20th with the SP500 closing at 3852 all-time high. However on Thurs, Jan 21st the SP500 closed at a higher all-time closing high of 3853, with the A-D line cumulative closing much lower set-up up a required negative divergence for a market top. Since last Thurs, Jan 21st, the A-D Cumulative has continued to fall lower.

Seasonality:

  1. After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February and March.

Years 2009-2010 to Years 2020-2021 Comparison:

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave is continuing to the original target at 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Once minor 3 completes, the minor 4 wave lower should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3725/3629. From there the minor 5 of major [5] wave should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave ii-(5) of minor 3 of major [5] low at 3750.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is either complete at 3871 or very near complete. Wave minute (5) of minor 5 is underway: with wave i-(5) reaching 3827, wave ii-(5) completed at 3750 (near the 50% Fib of 3745), wave iii-(5) completed at 3860, waves iv-(5) completed at 3797 and v-(5) could have completed at 3871. Once the major [3] wave completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3617/3451. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4214/4380.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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