January 15th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 15, 2021
5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3795 to 3789, dropped quickly to the days low at 3750, then rose slowly to the days high of 3785, and closed at 3768.
Market Technical Notes:
- NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -10. The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas. This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for larger SP500 drop.
- VIX: The VIX closed up +4.7% at 24.34. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher as the SP500 slowly climbed, which is bearish behavior on the VIX vs SP500 price.
- Chart Pattern: Potential Head and Shoulders (H & S) pattern with head at 3827, average neckline at 3746 and a target of 3665. A break below 3750 will confirm the measured target of 3665.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Thurs, Jan 14th with the SP500 closing at 3795 below its all-time close high of 3825, from Friday, Jan 8th. This is positive for for SP500 price action that should lead to news highs above 3825. However, this can sometimes take weeks to a month to play-out.
Seasonality:
- Next week is particularly bearish for the SP-500, post MLK Holiday.
2. From the middle of January to early March the SP500 Seasonality is particularly bearish.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave topped at 3827. The minor 4 wave lower should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3691/3601. Once minor 4 completes, the minor 5 of major [5] wave should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid below the minor 3 higih at 3827.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 wave up is still underway will top near the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003, where [3]=1.62[1]. Wave minute (4) of minor 5 of major [3] completed at 3663. Wave minute (5) of minor 5 is underway with wave i-(5) reaching 3828. Wave ii-(5) is underway and may have completed today at 3750 near the 50% Fib of 3745. The wave iii-(5) target is 3976, where iii=1.62*i. The minute (5)=(1) target is 4004, which agrees with the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003. Once major [3] completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] targets are 4296/4481. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the minute (4) low at 3663.
House Keeping: The US Stock Market are closed for the MLK Holiday, Monday, Jan 18th. The next blog update will be Tuesday, Jan 19th.
Enjoy the 3-day Holiday Weekend !
SP-500 5-min chart:
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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