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January 6th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 6, 2021

5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3727 to 3715, dipped to the days low at 3705, then rose steadily to the days high at 3783 and faded into the close to end at 3748.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near +10.  The NYMO has now closed back above the zero line after closing below -20 at -31 last Wed Dec 23rd. Thus the NYMO has cleared the “crash zone” of -20 to zero. This is sign of growing market breadth and “could” lead to a continuation rally on the SP500. A NYMO close above the zero line will signal the next sustained wave up.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down 1.1% at 25.07.  The VIX closed above its upper on Mon, Jan 4th and back below it today Tues Jan 5th. This is VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal confirmation. Need the VIX to break below 20 to confirm a melt-up SP500 scenario.
  3. Chart Pattern:  None.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time closing high today Wed Jan 6th with the SP500 closing at 3748, below the Dec 31st closing high at 3757. This indicator means that the SP-500 should soon close above 3757  There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price and it this could now be developing.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway to a target at major [5]=[1] 3972. Minor 3 should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up competed at 3770, where (3)=0.62(1) target at 3767. The minute (4) wave low was at 3663, just below the 38% Fib at 3672. The minute (5) of minor 3 up to new all-time highs should be underway. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid for minute (4) above the minute (1) high at 3646.

The alternate (blue) wave slight less likely outcome is more intermediate-term bullish than the primary (white/green) count and is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1] = 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3770 is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal (max 3833) and could have ended today at 3783. The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3574 to 3509 into early February. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4434 into late year 2021. Note: The alternate (blue) count as labeled remains valid below the 3783 high.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

8 Responses to “January 6th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    I’m so proud of this group of 2021 subscribers, I didn’t have to moderate (delete) a single comment on the current political events in Georgia or Washington.

    As I’ve said here for 12 years, good technical analysis work ignores the noise of the news.

    Honestly during 2020 I had to moderate (delete) a lot of comments on the news. I’m thinking some of them weren’t really subscribers but trolls who got access to the monthly password. Now with this much more secure individual login and password membership system, I’m expecting that issue will be solved.

  2. pugsma said

    AAII Weekly Sentiment has reset considerably; this is bullish for the SP-500

    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    January 7: 42.13% 24.37% 33.50%
    December 31: 46.08% 27.12% 26.80%
    December 24: 43.57% 34.44% 21.99%
    December 17: 43.43% 30.28% 26.29%
    December 10: 48.06% 25.09% 26.86%
    December 3: 49.07% 28.25% 22.68%
    November 26: 47.25% 25.27% 27.47%
    November 19: 44.35% 29.29% 26.36%
    November 12: 55.84% 19.29% 24.87%
    November 5: 37.96% 30.56% 31.48%
    October 29: 35.29% 29.41% 35.29%

  3. pugsma said

    TEVA initial charts added to 2021 Custom Chart Archive https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

  4. pugsma said

    It’s really simple here at 3783 on the SP500. The alt(blue) count Leading Diagonal maximum is 3833. Above 3833 the alternate (blue) is eliminated and a melt-up to at least 3916 via the primary (white/green) count is underway.

  5. Jim Guthery said

    Steve, what happens when we complete the target of around 3972?

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