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December 22nd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 22, 2020

4:05 pm EST: The SP-500 price opened flat from 3695 and traded sideways all day and closed at 3687.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -35 from -21 on Monday.  The NYMO closed Monday Dec 21st slightly below its lower BB and it looks like the NYMO may have again today closed below its lower BB making two consecutive days. This is a potential SP500 Buy trigger.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -3.7% at 24.23.  The VIX closed Monday, Dec 21st above its upper BB, setting up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger. The VIX closed today back below its upper BB today, confirming the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) top with head at 3727, neck line at 3633 and a target of 3537.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative dropped again today after a big drop on Monday, Dec 21st.  A waring sign that negative divergence could form if the SP-500 closes at new closing high above 3722 with the A-D not at a new high. There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3994, where minor 3 =2.23*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=(1) target at 3924. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629 and wave ii at 3544. Wave iii-(3) is underway with at target at 3860, where iii=2.62*i.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave 2-iii-(3) low at 3633.

The possible alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1]. Wave major [3] at 821 points was only slightly longer (1.08) than major [1] at 763 points. Often when major [3] is weak, the major [5] wave will extend. The major [5]=1.62[1] extension target is at 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 could have ended at 3727 or make a slightly higher high near 3791 (max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3540 to 3481 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 has topped at 3727 or will be is topping soon below 3833 (max) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping: If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021, then you should have e-mail from Mon, Dec 21st, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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