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December 1st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Analysis

Posted by pugsma on December 1, 2020

4:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3624 to 3645, rose to the to the days high at 3678, then dropped to close at 3642.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at +25 from +10 on Monday. The NYMO has been above 0 since late October, indicating an initiation impulse wave higher.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +1.0% at 20.77. The VIX should drop below 20 to confirm the major [5]-P1-C1 wave to the 3972 target.
  3. Chart Pattern: 15-min chart triangle bullish break-out with target of 3713.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made new all-time closing high on Nov 24th with the SP500 at 3635, indicating a new high above 3646 is likely. Today’s new high at 3678 satisfied this. There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 could be complete at 3678 or and could reach the wave iv-(1) triangle target at 3713 . Once wave minute (1) completes, wave minute (2) should then retrace to at least the 38% Fib at 3530. Once wave minute (2) completes, wave minute (3) up has an initial target at 3904, where (3)=0.78(1).  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid for wave minute (2) of minor 3 above the minor 2 low at 3234.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [5]-P1-C3 could be complete at 3678 or could complete at the major [5]=0.62[1] target of 3707. Minor 4 of major [5] was triangle wave with a target of 3713 to complete minor 5 of major [5]. Once P1 completes the P2 wave should retrace at least to the 38% Fib at 3131 into the spring of 2021.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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