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November 23rd, 2020: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on November 23, 2020

6:25 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3557 to 3567, quickly hit the days high at 3590, then dropped the days low at 3553 and traded sideways to close at 3578.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed at +50 from +32 on Friday.
  2. VIX:  The VIX closed down -4.4% at 22.66. The VIX needs to drop below 20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3] wave move higher than 3546.
  3. Chart PatternNothing to report.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made new all-time closing high today Nov 23rd with the SP500 at 3578. There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [3]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3994, where minor 3 =2.23*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 is nearing completion and should reach the wave iv-(1) triangle target at 3713 . Wave minute (2) will then retrace to at least the 38% Fib at 3530. Once wave minute (2) completes, wave minute (3) up has an initial target at 3904, where (3)=0.78(1).  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid for wave minute (2) of minor 3 above the minor 2 low at 3234.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 3209. Major [5] up is underway to complete P1 at the major [5]=[1] target of 3972. Minor 1 of major [5] completed at 3550. Minor 2 of major [5] completed at 3243. The minor 3 of major [5] wave up is underway with target of 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Within minor 3, minute (1) is complete at 3646. Wave minute (2) is underway has hit 3512 thus far and should retrace to the 38%/50%/62% Fib at 3489/3440/3391.  Note: the alternate (blue) count remains valid for wave (2) of minor 3 above the minor 2 low at 3 3234.

The alternate (red) wave count is that Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 3 (C3) is topping here between 3646 and 3707, where major [5]=0.62[1]. This alternate (red) wave count is gaining some small probability with the growing negative divergence on the weekly chart momentum indicators of RSI and MACD. Plus the AAII Weekly Sentiment is at an extreme bullish level. However, it would take a break below the 3394 pivot area to give this alternate (red) count a more reasonably probability. The Primary 2 (P2) wave correction should at least test the 200-day SMA area (3143) and the 38% Fib at 3131.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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