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November 19th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 19, 2020

4:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3567 to 3560, dropped quickly to the days low of 3544, then rose all day to close at the high of 3584.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near +46 from +39 on Wednesday.
  2. VIX:  The VIX closed down -3.1% at 23.11. The VIX needs to drop below 20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3] wave move higher than 3546.
  3. Chart PatternNothing to report.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative made new all-time closing high today, Nov 19th. There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3234. The minor 3 wave up is underway that should target 3994, where minor 3 =2.23*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646. Wave minute (2) completed at 3512 (white labels) near the 38% Fib of 3489. Wave minute (3) up has an initial target at 3924, where (3)=(1). Wave i-(3) completed at 3629. Wave ii-(3) likely completed today at 3544, near the 78% Fib retrace 3537. The wave iii-(3) target is at 3851, where iii=2.62*i.  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid for wave ii of minute (3) of minor 3 above the wave minute (2) or minor 3 low at 3512.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 3209. Major [5] up is underway to complete P1 at the major [5]=[1] target of 3972. Minor 2 of major [5] completed at 3243. The minor 3 wave up is underway with target of 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Within minor 3, minute (1) is complete at 3646. Wave minute (2) should retrace to the 38%/50%/62% Fib at 3489/3440/3391.  Note: the alternate (blue) count remains valid for wave (2) of minor 3 above the minor 2 low at 3 3234.

The alternate (red) wave count that Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 3 (C3) is topping here between 3646 and 3707, where major [5]=0.62[1]. This alternate (red) wave count is gaining some reasonable probability with the growing negative divergence on the weekly chart momentum indicators of RSI and MACD. Plus the AAII Weekly Sentiment is at an extreme bullish level. The Primary 2 (P2) wave correction should at least test the 200-day SMA area (3143) and the 38% Fib at 3131.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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