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November 17th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 17, 2020

6:10 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3627 to 3610, dropped quickly to 3589, rose to 3623 and dropped close at 3610.


  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down at +62 from +68 on Monday.
  2. VIX:  The VIX closed up +1.1% at 22.71. The VIX needs to drop below 25 and more importantly below 20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3] wave move higher than 3588.
  3. Chart PatternNothing to report.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative continues to make new all-time closing highs along with the SP-500 price. There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3234. The minor 3 wave up is underway that should target 3994, where minor 3 =2.23*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646. Wave minute (2) completed at 3512 (white labels) near the 38% Fib of 3489. Wave minute (3) up has an initial target at 3924, where (3)=(1). This wave i-(3) up has a 3658 target. Wave ii-(3) should retrace to the 50%/62% Fib at 3572/3551.  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid for wave ii of minute (3) of minor 3 above the wave minute (2) or minor 3 low at 3512.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 3209. Major [5] up is underway to complete P1 at the major [5]=[1] target of 3972. Minor 2 of major [5] completed at 3243. The minor 3 wave up is underway with target of 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Within minor 3, minute (1) is complete at 3646. Wave minute (2) should retrace to the 38%/50%/62% Fib at 3489/3440/3391.  Note: the alternate (blue) count remains valid for wave b-(2) of minor 3 below the recent 3646 high.

Tonight I’m introducing a bearish intermediate term alternate (red) wave count that Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 3 (C3) is topping here between 3646 and 3707, where major [5]=0.62[1]. This alternate (red) wave count is gaining some reasonable probability with the growing negative divergence on the weekly chart momentum indicators of RSI and MACD. Plus the AAII Weekly Sentiment is at an extreme bullish level. The Primary 2 (P2) wave correction should at least test the 200-day SMA area (3143) and the 38% Fib at 3131.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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