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November 4th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 4, 2020

6:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3369 to 3405, rose quickly to hit the days high of 3486, then dropped to 3340 and closed at 3443.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO:  The NYMO closed up slight at +12 from +10 on Tuesday.  The NYMO needs to close above +20 for several days to confirm a new impulse major [3] wave higher.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed down -17% at 29.57. The VIX needs to drop below 25 and more importantly below 20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3] wave move higher than 3588.
  3. Chart PatternPotential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.
  4. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:  The A-D line made a new all-high high on Oct 12th with the SP500 at 3550 still below its all-time high of 3588.  This strongly suggests that eventually (note: it can take a few months) the SP-500 will break-out to a new all-time high above 3588.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3234. The minor 3 wave up is underway that should target 3919, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 likely competed to at 3386 or will test the 3501 pivot area. Within minute (1), wave i hit 3330, wave ii corrected to 3280. Next is wave iii=2.0i at 3472, then wave iv at 23% Fib of 3338 and v=0.62i at 3499.  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 wave low at 3234.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209, minor and B at 3550. The minor C wave completed at 3234. Now the minor D wave should test the 3501 pivot and final minor E should complete major [4] around the 3394/3338 pivot. Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid above the minor C wave low of 3234.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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