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November 3rd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 3, 2020

5:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3310 to 3338, rose quickly to hit the days high of 3389, then dropped to 3357 and closed at 3369.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO:  The NYMO closed up at near +10 from -26 on Monday.  The NYMO needs to close above +20 for several days to confirm a new impulse major [3] wave higher.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed down -2% at 35.55. The VIX needs to drop below 25 and more importantly below 20 to confirm a the major [3] wave move much higher than 3588.
  3. Chart PatternPotential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.
  4. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:  The A-D line made a new all-high high on Oct 12th with the SP500 at 3550 still below its all-time high of 3588.  This strongly suggests that eventually (note: it can take a few months) the SP-500 will break-out to a new all-time high above 3588.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3234. The minor 3 wave up is underway that should target 3919, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 is likely headed for the 3501 pivot area. Within minute (1), wave i hit 3330, wave ii corrected to 3280. Next is wave iii=1.62i at 3435, then wave iv at 23% Fib of 3399 and v=i at 3495.  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 wave low at 3234.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209, minor and B at 3550. The minor C wave completed at 3234. Now the minor D wave should test the 3501 pivot and final minor E should complete major [4] around the 3394 pivot. Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid above the minor C wave low of 3234.

The alternate (red) wave count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] wave down will make a new low below 3209. The initial target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3130 and the 30%/38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3169 to 3058. There deeper major [2] retracements possible at the 50% Fib of 2980, where minor C=1.62*A.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave completed at 3234. The minute (2) wave is underway that could have completed at 3389 just above the 62% Fib retrace at 3378 or will retrace to the 78% Fib at 3415. Basis wave (2) at 3389, the minute (3) wave target is 0.62(1) at 3187. The minute (4) wave should retrace 23% to 3230. Minute (5) should then target where minor C=A target of 3171. Note: this alternate (red) wave count remains valid below the minor B high at 3550.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart;

SP500 Technical Analysis

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