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November 2nd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 2, 2020

4:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3270 to 3295, rose quickly to hit the days high of 3330, then dropped to 3280 and closed at 3310.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO:  The NYMO closed up at -26 from -58 on Friday confirming the +DIV with respect to SP500.  This is a short-term (2-day), confirmed positive divergence on the NYMO vs SP500 price and will typically lead to at least a short-term (2-day) rally higher in the SP500. Monday’s 40 point SP500 rally is day 1, so the SP500 should rally on Tuesday as well.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed down slightly -2 at 37.13. and more importantly back inside its upper BB and in the red on the 2nd day confirming a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.  Note: The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days from on Monday 10/26 to 10/29 setting up a potential VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. 
  3. Chart PatternPotential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.
  4. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:  The A-D line made a new all-high high on Oct 12th with the SP500 at 3550 still below its all-time high of 3588.  This strongly suggests that eventually (note: it can take a few months) the SP-500 will break-out to a new all-time high above 3588.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3234. The minor 3 wave up is underway that should target 3919, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 is likely headed for the 3501 pivot area. Within minute (1), wave i hit 3330, wave ii corrected to 3280. Next is wave iii=1.62i at 3435, then wave iv at 23% Fib of 3399 and v=i at 3495.  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count for minor 2 of major [3] remains valid above the major [2] low of 3209.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209, minor and B at 3550. The minor C wave completed at 3234. Now the minor D wave should test the 3501 pivot and final minor E should complete major [4] around the 3394 pivot. Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid for the minor C wave above the minor A low at 3209.

The alternate (red) wave count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] wave down will make a new low below 3209. The initial target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3130 and the 30%/38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3169 to 3058. There deeper major [2] retracements possible at the 50% Fib of 2980, where minor C=1.62*A.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. The minute (2) completed at 3366 and the 38% Fib retracement. The minute (3) wave completed at 3240, where (3)=1.62(1) at 3247. The minute (4) retraced to 3330, which was near the 38% Fib of 3326. Wave (5) down is underway towards the (5)=(1) target of 3195, which is just above the minor C=A target of 3171. Note: this alternate (red) wave count for minute (3) of minor C of major [2] remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low of 3415.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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