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October 30th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 30, 2020

6:05 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3310 to 3293, dropped all morning to 3240, traded sideways and hit a daily low at 3234 in the after and rallied to close at 3270.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO:  The NYMO closed at -58 with the SP500 at 3270 which is well above the -84 NYMO level when the SP500 closed at 3271 on Wednesday setting up a potential positive divergence.  This is short-term (2-day) potential positive divergence on the NYMO vs SP500 price and will typically lead to at least a short-term (2-day) rally higher in the SP500. Combine this with the NYMO close inside the lower BB yesterday triggering a SP500 Buy signal and we have a bullish NYMO set-up on the SP500 going into Monday.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed up slightly +1% at 38.02 and more importantly back inside its upper BB at 38.28 triggering an VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.  Note: The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days from on Monday 10/26 to 10/29 setting up a potential VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. 
  3. Chart PatternPotential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.
  4. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:  The A-D line made a new all-high high on Oct 12th with the SP500 at 3550 still below its all-time high of 3588.  This usually suggests that eventually (note: it can take a few months) the SP-500 will eventual break-out to a new all-time high above 3588.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 is on going towards the 88% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3250 and likely bottomed today at 3234. Minute (a) of minor 2 completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. Minute (b) is complete at 3466 at the 38% Fib. Minute (c) of minor 2 wave is targeting (c)=1.62(a) at 3247. Note: this primary (white/green) wave count for minor 2 of major [3] remains valid above the major [2] low of 3209.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209 and minor B at 3550. Minor C likely completed at 3234 today. Minor D should test the 3501 pivot and final minor E should complete major [4] around the 3394 pivot. Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid for the minor C wave above the minor A low at 3209.

The alternate (red) wave count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] wave down will make a new low below 3209. The initial target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3130 and the 30%/38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3169 to 3058. There deeper major [2] retracements possible at th5 50% Fib of 2980, where minor C=1.62*A.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. The minute (2) completed at 3366 and the 38% Fib retracement. The minute (3) wave completed at 3260, where (3)=1.62(1) at 3247. The minute (4) retraced to 3341, which was near the 38% Fib of 3338. Wave (5) down is underway towards the (5)=(1) target of 3206, which is just above the minor C=A target of 3171. Note: this alternate (red) wave count for minute (3) of minor C of major [2] remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low of 3415.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 Technical Analysisi

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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