October 29th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on October 29, 2020
6:25 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3271 to 3274, rose quickly to 3285, dropped to the days low of 3260, then rallied all day hitting the todays high at 3341 and closed at 3310.
Notes:
- NYMO: The NYMO closed at -54 above its lower BB of -70. This triggered a SP500 Buy signal, after the NYMO closed two consecutive days below -40 and below its lower BB.
- VIX: Today the VIX closed down -6% at 37.59 but still above its BB at 36.89. Note: The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days from on Monday 10/26 to 10/29 setting up a potential SP500 Buy signal, that will be triggered on a VIX closed back below its upper BB. Also, since the VIX opened and closed today above its BB, this means more selling is likely ahead for the SP500.
- Chart Pattern: Potential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.
- The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: Made a new all-high high on Oct 12th with the SP500 at 3550 still below its all-time high of 3588. This usually suggests that eventually (note: it can take a few months) the SP-500 will eventual break-out to a new all-time high above 3588.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 is on going towards the 88% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3250 and may have ended at 3260 or will need one more push lower. Minute (a) of minor 2 completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. Minute (b) is complete at 3466 at the 38% Fib. Minute (c) of minor 2 wave is targeting (c)=1.62(a) at 3247. Note: this primary (white/green) wave count for minor 2 of major [3] remains valid above the major [2] low of 3209.
The new alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209 and minor B at 3550. Minor C is either complete at 3260 or will drop a little further to the 88% Fib at 3250. Minor D should test the 3501 pivot and final minor E should complete major [4] around the 3394 pivot. Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid for the minor C wave above the minor A low at 3209.
The alternate (red) wave count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] wave down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3130 and the 30%/38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3169 to 3058. Wave minute (1) of minor C wave completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. The minute (2) completed at 3366 and the 38% Fib retracement. The minute (3) wave completed at 3260, where (3)=1.62(1) at 3247. The minute (4) retraced to 3341, which was near the 38% Fib of 3338. Wave (5) down is underway towards the (5)=(1) target of 3206, which is just above the minor C=A target of 3171. Note: this alternate (red) wave count for minute (3) of minor C of major [2] remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low of 3415.
SP-500 5-min Chart:
SP-500 15-min Chart:
SP-500 60-min Chart:
SP-500 4-hr Chart:
SP-500 Daily Chart:
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