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October 28th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 28, 2020

6:35 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3390 to 3344, dropped to 3284, traded sideways between 3280 and 3310, dropped in the final minutes to close near the low (3269) at 3271.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed at -81 below its lower BB of -62.  This is the second consecutive day the NYMO closed below -40 and below its lower BB. This sets up a potential SP500 Buy signal that would be triggered on a NYMO close back inside the lower BB.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed up 21% at 40.28.  Note: The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive days from on Monday 10/26 to 10/28 setting up a potential SP500 Buy signal, that will be triggered on a VIX closed back below its upper BB.
  3. Chart PatternPotential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 is on going towards the 88% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3250 and may have ended at 3269 or will need one more push lower. Minute (a) of minor 2 completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. Minute (b) is complete at 3466 at the 38% Fib. Minute (c) of minor 2 wave will target the (c)=(a)=3361 to (c)=1.62(a)= 3247 area. Note: this primary (white/green) wave count for minor 2 of major [3] remains valid above the major [2] low of 3209.

The new alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209 and minor B at 3550. Minor C is either complete at 3269 or will drop a little further to the 88% Fib at 3250. Minor D should test the 3501 pivot and final minor E should complete major [4] around the 3394 pivot. Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid for the minor C wave above the minor A low at 3209.

The alternate (red) wave count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] wave down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3130 and the 30%/38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3169 to 3058.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. The minute (2) completed at 3366 and the 38% Fib retracement. The minute (3) wave down is underway and should target the (3)=1.62(1) at 3247, followed by a 23% retrace for minute (4) to 3297 and finally a minute (5) wave drop to the 3171 minor C=A target. Note: this alternate (red) wave count for minute (3) of minor C of major [2] remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low of 3415.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analyis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP-500 Technical Analysis

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