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October 8th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 8, 2020

Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

4:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3418 to 3434, rallied to 3444, dropped to 3427, then slowly moved higher to close at 3447.

Note: 

  1. NYMO: Yesterday the NYMO closed up at +46. Today the NYMO closed up at +64. That’s 5 consecutive days above +20 and shows very strong market breadth. Typically it takes multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count), which we have seen.
  2. VIX: Today the VIX closed down -6% at 26.36.
  3. ZTB: Yesterday the ZBT closed at 0.585, which was below the required 0.615 level on the 10th day since the low below 0.38. The ZBT signal failed to trigger yesterday. These ZBT signals are extremely rare, so it’s not surprising.
  4. Chart Pattern: There is a potential bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on the 15-min chart with HEAD at 3209 and Neckline at 3430. Today the SP500 broke above the 3430 neckline and closed at 3447 above the neckline. This triggers the potential move to the IHS target of 3651 (primary count minor 1 target area).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway off the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3397.  The minute (2) looks to have played out as a running flat pull-back (a=3324, b=3421, c=3354) where c=a at 3358. Note: running flats are a very bullish wave formation in an uptrend. The minute (3)=2.62(1) target is 3584. The minute (4) 23% Fib is at 3524 and the minute (5)=0.62(1) target is 3640.  Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3354 minute (2) low.

The alternate (blue) wave count minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave looks to be targeting the 62% Fib 3444 or could move higher to the 78% Fib at 3507. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058 and also where minor C=A. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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