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October 7th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 7, 2020

Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

5:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3361 to 3384, rallied to 3408, traded sideways between 3394 and 3408, then rallied to the days high of 3424 and closed at 3418.

Note: 

  1. NYMO:  Yesterday NYMO closed down at +26.87, but rose again today to close above +50. Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count). We have had four consecutive NYMO closes above +20.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed down -5% at 28.06.
  3. ZTB:  Today ZBT closed at 0.58, its highest close in the 9 days since its low below 0.40.   For the bullish ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days, which is tomorrow Thurs (Oct 8th).  We have real legit shot of a ZBT trigger!
  4. Chart Pattern: There is a potential bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on the 15-min chart with HEAD at 3209 and Neckline at 3430. Breaking above the 3430 neckline would target of 3651 (primary count minor 1 target area).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway off the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3397.  The minute (2) looks to have played out as a running flat pull-back (a=3324, b=3421, c=3354) where c=a at 3358. Note: running flats are a very bullish wave formation in an uptrend. The minute (3)=2.62(1) target is 3584. The minute (4) 23% Fib is at 3524 and the minute (5)=0.62(1) target is 3640.  Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3209 major [2] low and will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The alternate (blue) wave count minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave looks to be complete today at 3431 near the 62% Fib 3444 or could move higher to the 78% Fib at 3507. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058 and also where minor C=A. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

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