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October 2nd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 2, 2020

Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

7:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3381 to 3340, dropped quickly to the days low at 3324, then traded in a range between 3369 and 3368 and closed at 3348.

Note: 

  1. NYMO:  Closed higher at +24, the highest since early August.  Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count) and this still has not happened. 
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed 3.5% higher at 27.63.
  3. ZTB:  Today the ZBT closed higher at 0.54.   For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days, which is on Thurs (Oct 8th). 

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway off the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3393.  The minute (2) pull-back is underway (maybe complete at 3324 near the 38% Fib) or could drop lower to the 50%/62% Fib at 3301 to 3279.  Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3209 major [2] low and will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The alternate (blue) wave count minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 likely completed at 3397 near the typical 50% at 3399. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058. Minute (1) of minor C ended at 3324 and wave minute (2) retraced to 3369 (a 62% Fib). Next the minute (3) wave should target 3178, where (3)=2.62(1). The minor C=A target is at 3013 based on minor B ending between 3393. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

SP-500 weekly chart:

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