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October 1st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 1, 2020

Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

6:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3363 to 3385, rose quickly to the days high at 3397, then traded in a range between 3361 and 3387 and closed at 3381.

Note: 

  1. NYMO:  Closed higher at +13, the highest since early August.  Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count) and this still has not happened. 
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed slightly higher at 26.70.
  3. ZTB:  Today the ZBT closed higher at 0.53.   For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days, which is on Thurs (Oct 8th). 

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway of the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) completed at 3361.  Wave iv of minute (1) retraced 23% to 3328.  Wave v-(1) completed at 3393 near the target of v=i area of 3398.  The minute (2) pull-back is underway (maybe complete at 3340) and should hold above the 3300 area.  The wave (2) 38% to 50% Fib is at 3322 and 3301.  Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3209 major [2] low and will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The alternate (blue) wave count minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 likely completed at 3397 near the typical 50% at 3399.  The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  The minor C=A target is at 3013 based on minor B ending between 3393.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

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