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September 29th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 29, 2020

5:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat from 3352, rose slightly to the days high of 3358, dropped to 3328 and closed at 3335.

Note: 

  1. NYMO:  Yesterday (Monday) the NYMO closed above the zero line at +2.67.  Today the NYMO closed lower near -13.   Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count).  We have not seen NYMO above +20 this since early August!
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed slightly higher at 26.27.
  3. ZTB:  Finally, on both Wed (9/23) and Thurs (9/24) the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) indicator dropped below the key 0.40 threshold.  Then on Friday (9/25) the ZBT indicator closed back above the 0.40 threshold at 0.45.   This is a potential bullish ZTB signal trigger.  For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days including last Friday (9/25) as day 1.   Thus, the 10th day ZBT close is on Thurs (Oct 8th).  Yesterday (Monday) the ZBT closed at 0.52.  Today it closed lower at 0.48.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191.  Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) completed at 3361.  Wave iv of minute (1) retraced 23% to 3328.  Wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3398.  For the minor (1) high near the 3394 pivot, there should be a minute (2) pull-back to hold above the 3300 area.  Note: The primary (white/green) count will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that only minor A of major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3209.  Wave minor B up is now underway that should retrace to the typical 38%/50% to 62% Fibonacci area of 3353, 3399 to 3444.  The 3361 high could be the end of minor B near the 38% Fib retrace or minor B could still stretch up the 3394 pivot.  Once the minor B wave completes, minor C of major [2] will make a new low below 3209.  The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  The minor C=A target is at 3020 to 3062 based on minor B ending between 3399 and 3444.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

House Keeping:  The third quarter (Q3) of 2020 ends tomorrow.  If you are a quarterly subscriber, simply make a payment via the link that I sent in an e-mail to continue with the Premium Service for Q4-2020 (Oct-Dec).

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

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