September 29th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on September 29, 2020
5:20 pm EST: The SP-500 price opened flat from 3352, rose slightly to the days high of 3358, dropped to 3328 and closed at 3335.
Note:
- NYMO: Yesterday (Monday) the NYMO closed above the zero line at +2.67. Today the NYMO closed lower near -13. Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count). We have not seen NYMO above +20 this since early August!
- VIX: Today the VIX closed slightly higher at 26.27.
- ZTB: Finally, on both Wed (9/23) and Thurs (9/24) the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) indicator dropped below the key 0.40 threshold. Then on Friday (9/25) the ZBT indicator closed back above the 0.40 threshold at 0.45. This is a potential bullish ZTB signal trigger. For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days including last Friday (9/25) as day 1. Thus, the 10th day ZBT close is on Thurs (Oct 8th). Yesterday (Monday) the ZBT closed at 0.52. Today it closed lower at 0.48.
The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191. Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588. Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279. Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228. Wave iii of minute (3) completed at 3361. Wave iv of minute (1) retraced 23% to 3328. Wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3398. For the minor (1) high near the 3394 pivot, there should be a minute (2) pull-back to hold above the 3300 area. Note: The primary (white/green) count will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that only minor A of major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3209. Wave minor B up is now underway that should retrace to the typical 38%/50% to 62% Fibonacci area of 3353, 3399 to 3444. The 3361 high could be the end of minor B near the 38% Fib retrace or minor B could still stretch up the 3394 pivot. Once the minor B wave completes, minor C of major [2] will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058. The minor C=A target is at 3020 to 3062 based on minor B ending between 3399 and 3444. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.
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SP-500 5-min chart:
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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