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September 28th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 28, 2020

2:05 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3299 to 3334 , quickly hit 3350, dropped to 3333 then rallied to hit the days high (so far) of 3357.

Note: 

  1. Wednesday the NYMO closed at -79 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB) at -77.  As mentioned that was potential SP-500 Buy trigger.  This SP500 buy signal was confirmed on Thursday with the NYMO closing back inside its lower BB at -68.72 vs a lower BB at -80.36.  Friday the NYMO closed  up near -40, which is further significant progress towards confirming the major [2] low is in place at 3209.   Today (Monday) intra-day the NYMO has been above the zero line near +10.  Multiple NYMO closes above +20 typical signal a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count).
  2. Also the VIX closed (Friday) at 26.38 versus 28.56 on Thursday which is well the 30 close on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500.  Today (Monday) the intra-day VIX is at 26.56, which has not dropped below Friday’s area of 26.38 and is a little concerning.
  3. I will note that on the 60-min chart, the drop down from 3588 to 3209 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  Breaking out of this falling wedge at 3300 and breaking above 3329 should confirm the major [2] low.  Friday the SP500 broke out from the wedge at 3307 but close right on the wedge upper line at 3299.  Today (Monday) the SP500 broke well above the bullish falling wedge upper trend line.
  4. The entire last week the SP-500 closed above the June high of 3233.  This is a bullish outcome, holding previous resistance that has become support.
  5. Finally, on both Wed (9/23) and Thurs (9/24) the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) indicator dropped below the key 0.40 threshold.  Then on Friday (9/25) the ZBT indicator closed back above the 0.40 threshold at 0.45.   This is a potential bullish ZTB signal trigger.  For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days including last Friday (9/25) as day 1.   Thus, the 10th day ZBT close is on Thurs (Oct 8th).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191.  Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) is headed for at least 3368, where iii=2.00*i.  Wave iv of minute (1) should retrace 23% to 3325, before wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3397.  For the minor (1) high near the 3394 pivot, there should be a minute (2) pull-back to hold above the 3300 area.  Note: The primary (white/green) count will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The new alternate (blue) wave count is that only minor A of major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3209.  Wave minor B up is now underway that should retrace to the typical 50% to 62% Fibonacci area of 3399 to 3444.  Once the minor B wave completes, minor C of major [2] will make a new low below 3209.  The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  The minor C=A target is at 3020 to 3062 based on minor B ending between 3399 and 3444.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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