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September 25th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 25, 2020

5:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat for 3346, quickly hit the days low at 3228, then rallied to hit the days high of 3307, and dropped back slightly to close at 3299.

Note: 

  1. Wednesday the NYMO closed at -79 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB) at -77.  As mentioned that was potential SP-500 Buy trigger.  This SP500 buy signal was confirmed on Thursday with the NYMO closing back inside its lower BB at -68.72 vs a lower BB at -80.36.  Today (Friday) the NYMO closed  up near -40, which is further significant progress towards confirming the major [2] low is in place at 3209.
  2. Also the VIX closed today (Friday) at 26.38 versus 28.56 on Thursday which is well the 30 close on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500. 
  3. I will note that on the 60-min chart, the drop down from 3588 to 3209 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  Breaking out of this falling wedge at 3300 and breaking above 3329 should confirm the major [2] low.  Today (Friday) the SP500 broke out from the wedge at 3307 but close right on the wedge upper line at 3299.
  4. Finally, the entire week the SP-500 closed above the June high of 3233.  This is bullish outcome holding previous resistance that has become support.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191.  Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) is headed for at least 3341, where iii=1.62*i.  Wave iv of minute (1) should retrace 23% to 3315, before wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3385.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count will be confirmed on break above the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329. 

The alternate (blue) wave count minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 is headed for a deeper target at C=1.62A = 3043 and the 38% Fib of 3058.   Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3229.  Wave (2) retraced to 3323, near the 50% Fib retrace of 3329.  Now wave minute (3) is headed toward (3)=1.23(1) target at 3077.  This wave minute (3) should bust through the lower line of the bullish falling wedge, break the 3153 pivot and the rising 200-day SMA of 3106 indicating that the primary (white/green) wave count is wrong and confirming the alternate (blue).   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minute (2) of minor C high of 3323.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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