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September 24th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 24, 2020

6:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from form 3237 to 3228, quickly hit the days low at 3209, then rallied to hit the days high of 3279, dropped back to 3230 and closed at 3246.

Note: 

  1. Yesterday’s alternate (blue) count was eliminated with the drop below 3229 today.   The primary (white/green) count remains the same looking for low near the C=A=3191 (today’s low 3209 could be it) and I really like this wave count.  The new alternate (blue) is a more bearish version of the primary (white/green) calling for a little deeper major [2] drop to the 3053 pivot.
  2. Yesterday the NYMO closed at -79 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB) at -77.  As mentioned that was potential SP-500 Buy trigger, that was confirmed today with the NYMO closing back inside its lower BB at -68.72 vs a lower BB at -80.36.
  3. Also the VIX closed today at 28.51 versus just above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500. 
  4. Finally I will note that on the 60-min chart, the drop down from 3588 to 3209 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  Breaking out of this falling wedge and break above 3329 should confirm the major [2] low.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed today at 3209 or drop just slightly lower to Minor C=A=3191.   Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) ended at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C ended at 3323, just below the minute (1) wave invalidation level at 3329.  The final minute (5) wave completed today at 3209 or will target minor C=A=3191.  The 30% retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3169 (which is same retrace as the year 2009 major [2]-P1-C1 wave).  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count will be confirmed on break above the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329. 

The new alternate (blue) wave count minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 is headed for a deeper target at C=1.62A = 3043 and the 38% Fib of 3058.   Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3229.  Wave (2) retraced to 3323, near the 50% Fib retrace of 3329.  Now wave minute (3) is headed toward (3)=1.23(1) target at 3077.  This wave minute (3) should bust through the lower line of the bullish falling wedge, break the 3153 pivot and the rising 200-day SMA of 3106 indicating that the primary (white/green) wave count is wrong and confirming the alternate (blue).   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minute (2) of minor C high of 3323.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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