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September 23rd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 23, 2020

5:40 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from form 3315 to 3319, quickly hit the days high at 3323, then slid lower all day to hit the days low of 3233 and closed near the low at 3227.

Note: 

  1. The bullish 2 week long $NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) above -68 was eliminated with today’s $NYMO close at roughly -82.  It’s possible that this -82 level is below the lower Bollinger Band (BB), but this won’t be shown until after 6pm EST.  If it is below the BB, then that’s a potential SP-500 Buy trigger.
  2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 28.58 versus just above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500. 
  3. Both wave counts are battling here between 3229 and 3329.  As unlikely has the primary (white/green) looked yesterday at the 3320 high, the alternate (blue) looks just as unlikely at today’s 3233 low.  We’ll get a break of this 3229 to 3329 range soon, to determine the winner.
  4. I will note that on the 60-min chart the drop down from 3588 to 3229 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  One more touch of the lower trendline per the primary (white/green) wave count looks like now.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 is ongoing with the first target of Minor C=A=3191, C=1.23A = 3136, C=1.38A=3100 or lowest target at the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) ended at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C ended today at 3323, just below the minute (1) wave invalidation level at 3329.  Thus, the final minute (5) wave is headed for the first target of minor C=A=3191.  The 23%, 30% to 38% Fib retrace range of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267, 3169, 3057.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count minute (4) wave remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329.  Above 3329, the alternate (blue) count becomes the primary.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3229 as a sharp -10% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.  The minute (1) wave of minor 1 could have ended at 3323 and minute (2) must be complete at today’s low of 3233.  Wave minute (3) = 2.62(1) target is at 3479.   Wave minute (4) 23% Fib is at 3422 and the minute (5)=(1) target is 3516 or close to the 3501 pivot.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3229.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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