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September 21st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 21, 2020

4:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from form 3319 to 3286, hit the day’s low at 3229 around mid-morning, drift around 3329 to 3359 and then rallied to close at 3281.

Note: 

  1. Today we got the 2nd lower closing low at 3281, below the 3332 close from Sept 8th.   When the SP500 closed at 3332 on Tuesday Sept 8th the NYMO closed at -68.  Today the NYMO closed at roughly -58. That is a potential strong NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) with respect to the new SP500 closing low of 3281, which is potentially bullish for the SP500.  It will take a NYMO close above today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the NYMO +DIV. 
  2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 28 versus above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also bullish for the SP500.  It will take a VIX close below today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the -DIV.
  3. Because of notes 1 and 2 above, alternate (blue) count is at least a likely as the primary (white/green).   It will take a negation of the both the NYMO +DIV and VIX -DIV to eliminate the alternate (blue) count and confirm the primary (white/green) count.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave ended at 3429 as an expanded flat from the minor A low of 3350.  From the minor B high at 3429, the minor C wave lower should reach the 3258 to 3154 pivot area.  The Minor C=A target is 3191 and the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) likely ended today at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C should retrace 38% to 3280, before the final minute (5) drops to the 3191 minor C=A target.  The 23% to 38% Fib retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267 to 3057.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count minute (4) wave remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329.  Above 3329, the alternate (blue) count becomes the primary.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3229 as a sharp -10% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.  The minute (1) wave of minor 1 should reach the 3338 pivot area.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3229.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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