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September 18th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 18, 2020

4:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat form 3357, hit 3362, then dropped all day to a low at 3292 before rallying all day to hit 3327 and to closing at 3319.

Note: 

  1. Today we finally got the lower closing low at 3319, which is below the 3332 close from Sept 8th.   When the SP500 closed at 3332 on Tuesday Sept 8th the NYMO closed at -68.  Today the NYMO closed at roughly -25. That is a potential strong NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) with respect to the new SP500 closing low of 3319, which is bullish for the SP500.  It will take a NYMO close above today’s close on Monday to confirm the +DIV. 
  2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 26 today versus above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential strong VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also bullish for the SP500.  It will take a VIX close below today’s close on Monday to confirm the -DIV.
  3. Because of notes 1 and 2 above, the primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts should be flipped in terms of probability.  I didn’t have the time to re-draw the charts.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave ended at 3429 as an expanded flat from the minor A low of 3350.  From the minor B high at 3429, the minor C wave lower should reach the 3258 to 3154 pivot area.  The Minor C=A target is 3191 and the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) should be underway to the (3)=1.62(1) target of 3200.  Wave (4) of minor C should retrace 38% to 3261, before the final minute (5) drops to the 3191 minor C=A target.  The 23% to 38% Fib retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267 to 3057.  I’d expect this major [2] wave to last several weeks to two month and test the rising 200-day SMA that is currently at 3102.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the minor B high at 3429.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3292 as a sharp -8% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3292.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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