September 5th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on September 5, 2020
11:15 am EST: On Friday September 4th, the SP-500 opened flat from 3455, rose quickly to 3479, fall hard to the day’s low of 3350 and then slowly climbed the rest of the day to reach the daily high of 3455, before closing at 3427.
The Wednesday, September 2nd high at 3588 is the major [1]-P1-C3 top we’ve been looking for. It slightly exceeded the 3515 area we were looking for based on the weekly chart upper channel resistance. With last parabolic more from 3400 to 3588 in a week, SP-500 price rose too far above (+16%) its rising 200-day SMA (3092), which was historically one of the highest extremes recorded for this indicator in the past 50 years. Every time this happens there is increased SP-500 price volatility (eg. we saw a quick 238 point two drop drop) and then over the next 1 to 2 months the SP-500 price flattens out and seeks to back-test the rising 200-day SMA. Note that SP-500 price can make a slightly higher high during this corrective phase before the final drop to the rising 200-day SMA. That’s exactly what I’m expecting here over the next 1 to 2 months as the major [2] wave plays out.
The primary (white/green) count is that major [2]-P1-C3 is likely to play out as a flat or expanded flat wave over the next 6 to 8 weeks. The drop from 3358 to 3350 is minor A of major [2]. The minor B target for a flat is B=A at 3588 and the expanded flat minor B target is at B=1.23A at 3643. Once the minor B wave is complete, there should be a sharp the minor C drop to target the 3258 pivot area the 23% Fib retrace at 3267 for major [2].
The alternate (blue) count is that major [2]-P1-C1 is likely going to play out a much faster (eg. week or two) as a simple zig-zag. The drop for 3588 to 3350 is minor A of major [2]. There should be a typical 50% to 62% Fib retrace for minor B to the 3469 to 3497 area. Friday’s move up from 3350 to 3455 could be all of minor B or there could be a little more upside early next week. Next will be a sharp minor C wave drop to the C=A target area of 3231 to 3259, which is right near the 23% Fib retrace for major [2] at 3267.
Note: It’s likely that during this move up from 3350, the 62% retrace of 3497 will separate to the two wave counts. Above 3497, the SP500 price likely headed to minor B flat or expanded flat target of 3588 to 3643 per the primary (green). Below 3497, expect a quick drop to 3258 next per the alternate (blue).
House Keeping: The US Markets are closed Monday, Sept 7th in observance of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.
Have a great Labor Day Holiday Weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart (9-4-20):
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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