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June 19th, 2020: SP-500 Daily and Weekly Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 19, 2020

2:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3115 to 3140, quickly hit 3156 (high of the day) and fell quickly to 3091.

It’s time to keep an open mind on the possible SP500 wave counts.

The super bullish set-up looks unlikely going into the summer and fall.  I have decided to consolidate the primary (white/green) wave count into major [1]-P1-C3 wave still has some room to run higher slightly above 3233 in a minor 5 wave after a minor 4 triangle between 2966 and 3233 completes.  For the minor 4 triangle: minute (a) complete at 2966 and minute (b) complete at 3156. Next is minute (c) down to 3028 pivot area, minute (d) to 3115, and minute (e) to 3056. This minor 4 triangle and weak minor 5 wave would likely set-up some significant negative divergence on the RSI and MACD momentum indicators vs price on the SP-500 daily chart and lead to the major [2] wave pull-back.   This primary (green) count remains valid above 2966.

The alternate (blue) count that the major [1]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3233 is the same.   The major [2] wave lower is underway, with the minor A of major [2] completed at 2966.  The minor B wave likely completed today at 3156.  The minor C=A target is at 2889, near the 30%/38% Fib targets of 2920/2837.   This alternate (blue) count remains valid below 3233.

I have added a new bearish alternate (orange) wave count that has the Cycle 2 (C2) wave (cycle bear market) did not complete at 2192 and will need to reach at least the 50% Fib of Cycle 1 (C1) at 2031 during year 2021.   The drop from 3394 to 2192 was only the Primary A (PA) wave of C2.  This move up from 2192 to 3233 was the Primary B (PB) wave.  This move lower from 3233 is just the beginning of the Primary C (PC) wave that should reach the PC=PA target of 2031, which interestingly enough is the exact 50% Fib of the Cycle 1 (C1) move up from 667 to 3394.  Break below the 2767 low would really make this alternate (orange) count move probable.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 Daily Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 Weekly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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