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April 16th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 16, 2020

5:45 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened flat, stayed within a narrow range of 2807 to 2764 and closed at 2800.

During the final hour of the cash market I began to look at the strong possibility of minor 4 triangle on the SP500 that would mean one more minor 5 push above 2852 to complete major [1].  Part of the reason was that the SP-500 tried and failed to break below the 2759 pivot.  Secondly I began to look at the 60-min charts on the lagging financials (XLF) and small caps (IWM).  Cleary both of the those indices needed a final push higher to compete a 5-wave impulsive Leading Diagonal (LD), see my charts in the blog post prior to this one.

The primary (green/white) count is that minor 4 of major [1]-P1-C3 is completed as a contracting triangle wave between 2721 and 2852 (131 points).   This triangle wave satisfies the guideline of “alternation” between the minor 2 wave flat and this triangle wave minor 4.  The two possible triangle wave targets for completion of the minor 5 wave thrust higher out of the triangle are: 1) 2786 + (2852-2721) = 2917 or 2) 2852 + (2852-2721) = 2983.  The minor 4 triangle primary (green) count remains valid above 2721.

The alternate (blue) is that major [1]-P1-C3 complete at 2852.  The major [2] wave down to the typical 50% to 62% Fib retrace of 2522 to 2443 is underway.  This alternate (blue) count remains valid below 2852.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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